Bowdoin College '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.73 (fleet 2.37) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–22 (39%) as crew 1–4 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 11–20 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 15–26 against 16.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 1.80 | 2.67 | 8–13 | 5.1 | +0.86 | 1.9 | 8% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 1.92 | 0.33 | 3–7 | 6.3 | −1.58 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.16 | 2.43 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 2.16 | 1.06 | 1–4 | 1.9 | −1.10 | 0.7 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.1 | 1.40 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.0 | 4.98 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.4 | 2.14 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.0 | — |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 3.01 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.1 | 1.88 |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.0 | 0.92 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 2.17 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 2.36 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.8 | 2.08 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | 2.31 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 2.71 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 2.68 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.7 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 1.76 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 2.28 |
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 3.23 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.0 | 2.52 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.8 | 3.37 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.5 | 3.24 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.8 | 1.39 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 32% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.71 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.4 | 2.85 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 3.33 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 3.58 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 15.4 | 1.32 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.3 | 3.22 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 13.6 | — |
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.6 | 1.54 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 4.41 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 2.60 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.61 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.6 | 1.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
