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Joseph R. Duplin Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 11–2
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 10–3
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 8–5
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4–9
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4–6
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4–6
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3–7
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 38 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.570 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.16 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		19.14
school +0.20		Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth 2.93
Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 2.84
Caroline Bayless / Nora Ong 3.16		86%9–1 (90%)+0.4
2Harvard University
Crimson		28.21
school +0.15		Cordelia Burn / Marleigh Belsley 2.43
Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.80
Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.79		68%10–3 (77%)+1.2
3Dartmouth College
Big Green		67.16
school +0.14		Taylor Eastman / Caroline Oyster 2.54
Yumi Yoshiyasu / Carlota Hopkins Guerra
Sarah Young / Elise Donovan 2.21		35%2–3 (40%)+0.3
4Roger Williams University
Hawks		86.35
school +0.38		Caylin Schnoor / Claire Buckley
Claire Siegel-Wilson / Julia O'Connor 2.23
Michaela Odonnell / Carly Kiss 1.86		22%4–6 (40%)+1.8
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		47.02
school −0.11		Julia Wyatt / Jemma Schroder 2.22
Lucy Brock / Wendy Wu 2.67
Emily Scherer / Sophie Yang 2.22		48%4–6 (40%)−0.8
5Tufts University
Jumbos		75.98
school +0.14, home +0.32		Annika Fedde / Alessandra Torres 2.04
Samantha Jensen / Adelaide Straub 1.80
Julia Shannon-Grillo / Caroline Kelly 1.61		24%4–5 (44%)+1.9
7Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		37.57
school +0.21		Elizabeth Kaplan / Holliss Hirsch 2.60
Ellie Maus / Meghan Gonzalez 2.76
Teagan Cunningham / Brooke Asherman 1.92		63%3–7 (30%)−3.3
8Cornell University
Big Red		56.61
school −0.10		J.J. Smith / Susie Foster
Lucija Ruzevic / Clara Hewson
Meredith Moran / Lilly Bjerke		39%2–7 (22%)−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Roger Williams University6.357.424–62.2+1.071.514%
5Tufts University5.987.044–52.1+1.061.513%
2Harvard University8.218.8210–38.8+0.610.532%
1Brown University9.149.579–18.6+0.420.157%
3Dartmouth College7.167.402–31.7+0.240.057%
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology7.026.624–64.8−0.400.282%
8Cornell University6.615.702–73.5−0.900.993%
7Bowdoin College7.575.993–76.3−1.583.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Claire Siegel-WilsonRoger Williams University2.233.304–62.2+1.071.514%
Michaela OdonnellRoger Williams University1.862.934–62.2+1.071.514%
Annika FeddeTufts University2.043.104–52.1+1.061.513%
Cordelia BurnHarvard University2.433.0410–38.8+0.610.532%
Sarah BurnHarvard University2.793.4010–38.8+0.610.532%
Elizabeth KaplanBowdoin College2.601.023–76.3−1.583.7>99%
Teagan CunninghamBowdoin College1.920.333–76.3−1.583.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology76%
12Brown UniversityRoger Williams University95%
13Tufts UniversityCornell University41%upset
14Bowdoin CollegeDartmouth College59%
15Brown UniversityTufts University96%
16Roger Williams UniversityCornell University45%upset
17Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology54%
18Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University87%
19Cornell UniversityBowdoin College27%upset
110Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology89%
111Harvard UniversityDartmouth College74%
112Bowdoin CollegeTufts University83%
113Brown UniversityHarvard University72%
114Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCornell University60%
115Roger Williams UniversityTufts University59%
116Brown UniversityCornell University92%
118Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College23%upset
120Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology35%upset
121Harvard UniversityBowdoin College65%
123Brown UniversityBowdoin College83%
124Harvard UniversityTufts University90%
125Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBowdoin College36%upset
126Harvard UniversityCornell University82%
128Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology26%upset
229Brown UniversityRoger Williams University94%
230Harvard UniversityDartmouth College74%
232Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University86%
235Brown UniversityHarvard University72%
331Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology64%
334Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University74%
337Cornell UniversityBowdoin College29%upset
338Tufts UniversityBowdoin College17%upset
339Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCornell University57%
340Tufts UniversityCornell University32%upset
441Brown UniversityRoger Williams University94%
442Dartmouth CollegeHarvard University26%upset
443Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University85%
445Harvard UniversityBrown University29%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonGreenHawksEngineersJumbosBearsRed
Brown University Bears7–0✕WWWWWWW
Harvard University Crimson6–1L✕WWWWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green4–3LL✕WWWLW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–3LLL✕WWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–5LLLL✕LWW
Tufts University Jumbos2–5LLLLW✕LW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–5LLWLLW✕L
Cornell University Big Red1–6LLLLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonGreenHawks
Brown University Bears2–1✕WLW
Harvard University Crimson2–1L✕WW
Dartmouth College Big Green2–1WL✕W
Roger Williams University Hawks0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EngineersJumbosBearsRed
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–1✕WLW
Tufts University Jumbos2–1L✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–2WL✕L
Cornell University Big Red1–2LLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BearsCrimsonGreenHawks
Brown University Bears2–1✕LWW
Harvard University Crimson2–1W✕LW
Dartmouth College Big Green2–1LW✕W
Roger Williams University Hawks0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-5-6
4 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
5 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
6 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 2-3-6
7 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
8 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
9 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
10 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
11 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
12 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
13 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-5
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
16 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-5
17 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
18 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-6
19 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-5
20 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
21 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
22 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
24 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4-5-6
26 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-5
27 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
28 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
29 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
30 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
32 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
33 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
35 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
36 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
31 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
34 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
37 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
38 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-6
39 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-4-6
40 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-4-6
41 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
42 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
43 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
44 Brown University Bears 2-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-4-6
45 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2-5-6
46 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 995.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine6.4 hrs Humidity68% Pressure995.9 hPa Rain0.08 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →