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The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 43 74 117
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 100 77 177
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 82 97 179
4 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 90 91 181
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 100 93 193
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 86 124 210
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 125 86 211
8 Boston College Boston College Eagles 112 117 229
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 78 174 252
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 155 111 266
11 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 144 125 269
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 141 131 272
13 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 143 137 280
14 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 156 160 316
15 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 180 163 343
16 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 210 171 381
17 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 191 204 395
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 5 1 4 3 1 2 8 5 1 3 1 1 1 7 43 Carmen Cowles '25 [1-14]
Sydney Zoehrer '24 [1-10]
Sarah Moeder '26 [11-14]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 9 4 9 1 2 6 2 6 7 5 12 6 3 6 78 Okyanus Arıkan '26
Lily Moore '26
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 1 5 2 5 17 3 1 3 9 9 8 12 4 3 82 Mia Nicolosi '25
Ximena Escobar '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 10 15 1 2 11 8 3 7 4 1 4 2 13 5 86 Caroline Bayless '23
Menasha Leport '25
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7 8 3 11 5 4 15 2 2 8 7 5 11 2 90 Sarah Burn '24
Corinne Lee '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 7 15 10 3 1 14 1 10 7 2 7 10 11 100 Emily Bornarth '24
Sydney Motherway '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 4 3 7 6 14 7 4 10 6 12 3 4 6 14 100 Gray Hemans '25
Caroline Oyster '24
Boston College Boston College Eagles 15 2 5 7 10 9 13 12 3 11 5 8 2 10 112 Lourdes Gallo '24 [1-8]
Caroline Sibilly '26 [9-14]
Lilly Mathieu '23 [1-10]
Elliot Dyroff '26 [11-14]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 8 9 14 9 8 14 5 9 5 6 9 16 12 1 125 Brooke Schmelz '25 [1-14]
Shayne Bersin '25 [1-10]
Samantha Karlson '25 [11-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 14 12 12 17 12 12 10 4 12 2 6 15 5 8 141 Samantha Jensen '24
Adelaide Straub '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 6 6 6 4 6 15 11 RDG 17 16 13 3 14 16 143 Ellie Maus '22 [1-14]
Brooke Asherman '23 [1-10]
Luisa Louchheim '25 [11-14]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 3 14 16 8 4 10 9 11 8 13 11 11 17 9 144 Taylor Eastman '24
Faye Benjamin '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 13 17 13 16 7 5 6 8 15 4 17 13 8 13 155 Emily Mueller '25
Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 16 11 10 15 9 13 12 14 11 10 10 14 7 4 156 Lucia Loosbrock '25 [1-14]
Lila Coffman '26 [1-10]
Isabella Welch '25 [11-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 12 10 11 12 16 DNF 7 13 16 14 14 10 15 12 180 Haley Andreasen '25
Lilly Ladd '26
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 11 16 8 13 13 11 17 16 13 17 15 17 9 15 191 Aili Moffet '23
Miya Preyer '23
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 17 13 17 14 15 16 16 15 14 15 16 9 16 17 210 Grace Gear '23 [1-8]
Audrey Commerford '25 [9-14]
Maddy Saffer '24 [1-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 1 10 1 3 3 4 8 1 3 6 7 12 7 8 74 Emma Cowles '25
Carmen Berg '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 1 9 4 1 1 9 7 11 2 3 5 6 14 77 Emma Snead '23 [1-14]
Laura Slovensky '25 [1-6, 9-14]
Leonora Krajewski '23 [7-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 9 4 8 8 5 7 11 7 4 4 7 1 4 86 Lucy Brock '25
Jemma Schroder '24
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 13 14 5 10 3 4 8 2 11 2 3 5 2 91 Cordelia Burn '25 [1-14]
Emily Launderville '24 [1-4, 11-14]
Margo Silliman '25 [5-10]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 10 4 8 12 12 10 6 6 6 1 5 1 9 3 93 Sarah Young '25
Eliza Crocker '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 6 11 7 7 5 9 5 3 13 3 6 13 2 7 97 Megan Grimes '24
Jessi Avila-Shah '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 5 12 5 6 4 6 1 4 10 13 8 16 8 13 111 Katherine Mcnamara '26
Francesca Edmands '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 2 2 1 13 8 3 10 RDG 14 16 14 12 11 117 Libby Redmond '24 [1-14]
Elizabeth Shanahan '23 [1-10]
Lilly Mathieu '23 [11-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 2 5 17 2 6 7 14 15 1 10 10 9 11 15 124 Charlotte Costikyan '24
Lily Shore '24
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 8 7 3 11 7 13 10 13 5 7 11 4 10 16 125 Bella Casaretto '26
Madeleine Regulla '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 13 8 11 15 11 14 2 5 9 8 9 2 14 10 131 Annika Fedde '23
Alessandra Torres '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 11 3 6 9 2 2 11 12 4 9 17 17 17 17 137 Lauren Russler '26 [1-10]
Teagan Cunningham '22 [11-14]
Luisa Louchheim '25 [1-10]
Brooke Asherman '23 [11-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 15 14 10 14 9 11 13 2 8 17 15 15 16 1 160 Eva Ermlich '26 [1-14]
Morgan Termaat '23 [1-12]
Lila Coffman '26 [13-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 12 17 12 10 15 12 15 14 16 12 13 6 3 6 163 Meredith Broadus '25
Annabel De Alessi '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 17 16 16 16 14 17 12 16 12 5 1 11 13 5 171 Audrey Commerford '25 [1-4]
Anna Olsen '25 [5-14]
Lilia Hutchins '23 [1-4, 9-14]
Annabelle Williams '24 [5-8]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 6 13 17 17 15 16 9 14 15 14 8 4 12 174 Kytalin Hendrickson '26
Katie Coughlin '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 16 15 15 13 16 16 17 17 17 16 12 10 15 9 204 Hailey Pemberton '23 [1-6, 11-14]
Izzy Wu-Karr '26 [7-10]
Abigail Lenox '23 [1-2, 5-14]
Emma Mcdonnell '26 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles11223344556677
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears22334455667788
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 133445566778899
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 24455667788991010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears131314141515161617171122
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels556677889910101111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 166778899101011111212
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 27788991010111112121313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson889910101111121213131414
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers99101011111212131314141515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1010111112121313141415151616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1414151516161717112233
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11111121213131414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 212121313141415151616171711
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts15151616171711223344
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 1161617171122334455
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 21717112233445566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles11223344556677
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears22334455667788
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 133445566778899
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 24455667788991010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears131314141515161617171122
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels556677889910101111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 166778899101011111212
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 27788991010111112121313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson889910101111121213131414
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers99101011111212131314141515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1010111112121313141415151616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1414151516161717112233
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11111121213131414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 212121313141415151616171711
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts15151616171711223344
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 1161617171122334455
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 21717112233445566
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Lourdes Gallo '24 [1-8]
Caroline Sibilly '26 [9-14]		 Lilly Mathieu '23 [1-10]
Elliot Dyroff '26 [11-14]
Eagles Libby Redmond '24 [1-14] Elizabeth Shanahan '23 [1-10]
Lilly Mathieu '23 [11-14]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Ellie Maus '22 [1-14] Brooke Asherman '23 [1-10]
Luisa Louchheim '25 [11-14]
Polar Bears Lauren Russler '26 [1-10]
Teagan Cunningham '22 [11-14]		 Luisa Louchheim '25 [1-10]
Brooke Asherman '23 [11-14]
Brown University Brown University Caroline Bayless '23 Menasha Leport '25
Bears 1 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Lily Shore '24
Brown University Brown University Emily Mueller '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Bears 2 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Francesca Edmands '25
Connecticut College Connecticut College Aili Moffet '23 Miya Preyer '23
Camels Hailey Pemberton '23 [1-6, 11-14]
Izzy Wu-Karr '26 [7-10]		 Abigail Lenox '23 [1-2, 5-14]
Emma Mcdonnell '26 [3-4]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Gray Hemans '25 Caroline Oyster '24
Big Green 1 Sarah Young '25 Eliza Crocker '23
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Taylor Eastman '24 Faye Benjamin '25
Big Green 2 Bella Casaretto '26 Madeleine Regulla '25
Harvard University Harvard University Sarah Burn '24 Corinne Lee '23
Crimson Cordelia Burn '25 [1-14] Emily Launderville '24 [1-4, 11-14]
Margo Silliman '25 [5-10]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Brooke Schmelz '25 [1-14] Shayne Bersin '25 [1-10]
Samantha Karlson '25 [11-14]
Engineers Lucy Brock '25 Jemma Schroder '24
Northeastern University Northeastern University Lucia Loosbrock '25 [1-14] Lila Coffman '26 [1-10]
Isabella Welch '25 [11-14]
Huskies Eva Ermlich '26 [1-14] Morgan Termaat '23 [1-12]
Lila Coffman '26 [13-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Samantha Jensen '24 Adelaide Straub '24
Jumbos 1 Annika Fedde '23 Alessandra Torres '24
Tufts University Tufts University Haley Andreasen '25 Lilly Ladd '26
Jumbos 2 Meredith Broadus '25 Annabel De Alessi '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Emily Bornarth '24 Sydney Motherway '24
Bears Emma Snead '23 [1-14] Laura Slovensky '25 [1-6, 9-14]
Leonora Krajewski '23 [7-8]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Okyanus Arıkan '26 Lily Moore '26
Rams Kytalin Hendrickson '26 Katie Coughlin '24
University of Vermont University of Vermont Grace Gear '23 [1-8]
Audrey Commerford '25 [9-14]		 Maddy Saffer '24 [1-8]
Catamounts Audrey Commerford '25 [1-4]
Anna Olsen '25 [5-14]		 Lilia Hutchins '23 [1-4, 9-14]
Annabelle Williams '24 [5-8]
Yale University Yale University Carmen Cowles '25 [1-14] Sydney Zoehrer '24 [1-10]
Sarah Moeder '26 [11-14]
Bulldogs 1 Emma Cowles '25 Carmen Berg '26
Yale University Yale University Mia Nicolosi '25 Ximena Escobar '25
Bulldogs 2 Megan Grimes '24 Jessi Avila-Shah '25

Conditions — 09/24/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1011.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1011.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn · SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Dartmouth: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.17 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dartmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (34 labelled days at Dartmouth).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →