University of Vermont '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–41 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 4–14 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 5–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 9–41 against 10.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.45 | -0.55 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2023-04-01 | Women's Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 3.11 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 2022-03-26 | Last Chance Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 1.18 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.26 | 2.70 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.44 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 1.88 | 1.39 | 2–19 | 3.0 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Staake Trophy Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.6 | 2.29 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 3.67 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 3.16 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 3.91 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 3.83 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 2.70 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 3.15 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.6 | 2.72 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.4 | 1.01 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.5 | 2.48 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 2.94 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 1.79 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| Last Chance Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.5 | 2.81 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 2.60 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.7 | 2.73 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.7 | 2.06 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.0 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.2 | 0.72 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.7 | 2.00 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.4 | 2.21 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.6 | 2.00 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 11.0 | 1.36 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.9 | 1.46 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.4 | 1.76 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.8 | 2.31 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
