| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 5–3 |
| 2 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 2–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 12 matches (58%) with a log-loss of 0.750 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.94 ± 0.80: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northeastern University Huskies | 3 | 5.08 school +0.11 | Adeline Schoen / Zoe Grant Lucia Loosbrock / Morgan Termaat Lauren Krim / Maria Regina Ramos | 32% | 5–3 (62%) | +2.4 |
| 2 | Connecticut College Camels | 1 | 6.18 school +0.41, home +0.32 | Aili Moffet / Miya Preyer 1.96 Analucia Clarkson / Kensie Winton Hailey Pemberton / Elizabeth Davis 1.69 | 71% | 5–3 (62%) | −0.7 |
| 3 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 2 | 5.50 | Grace Gear / Madeline Kerr 2.20 Audrey Commerford / Alice Thompson 1.98 Elizabeth Amelotte / Maddy Saffer 1.33 | 46% | 2–6 (25%) | −1.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northeastern University | 5.08 | 6.36 | 5–3 | 2.6 | +1.28 | 2.2 | 8% |
| 2 | Connecticut College | 6.18 | 5.78 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 3 | University of Vermont | 5.50 | 4.48 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adeline Schoen | Northeastern University | 1.29 | 2.58 | 5–3 | 2.6 | +1.28 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Aili Moffet | Connecticut College | 1.96 | 1.56 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Analucia Clarkson | Connecticut College | 1.65 | 1.26 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Grace Gear | University of Vermont | 2.20 | 1.18 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Audrey Commerford | University of Vermont | 1.98 | 0.96 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | University of Vermont | 1.33 | 0.31 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Camels | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Camels | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern University Huskies | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Camels | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–1 | ✕ | W | L |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Camels | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–1 | ✕ | W | L |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Camels | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Camels | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Huskies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Camels | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Catamounts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Catamounts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Northeastern University | Huskies | Adeline Schoen '22 Lauren Krim '24 Lucia Loosbrock '25 |
Zoe Grant '25 Maria Regina Ramos '25 Morgan Termaat '23 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels | Aili Moffet '23 Analucia Clarkson '22 Hailey Pemberton '23 |
Miya Preyer '23 Kensie Winton '23 Elizabeth Davis '21 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Audrey Commerford '25 Elizabeth Amelotte '24 Grace Gear '23 |
Alice Thompson '25 Maddy Saffer '24 Madeline Kerr '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
