Connecticut College '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 33.84 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 11 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.49 (fleet 2.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–44 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 6–27 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 3–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 9–44 against 12.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.65 | 0.69 | 1–15 | 2.1 | −0.96 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 1.66 | -1.34 | 0–9 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2022-03-26 | Last Chance Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 1.29 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 1.13 | 3.26 | 1–5 | 0.2 | +2.13 | 1.4 | 20% |
| 2021-03-13 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.86 | -0.54 | 2–12 | 3.3 | −1.40 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.8 | -0.00 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.4 | 1.75 |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 2.58 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 2.89 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.7 | 1.70 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.5 | 1.42 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | 1.59 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.8 | 1.83 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.7 | 1.58 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.8 | 1.90 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 0.09 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | 0.84 |
| Last Chance Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 6% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 1.72 |
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | 2.55 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.73 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 13.3 | 1.48 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.2 | 1.39 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.7 | 1.53 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Camel invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.7 | -2.70 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 11.6 | 1.25 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.4 | 1.32 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.3 | -0.26 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Hailey Pemberton |  Cape Cod Academy |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
