Camel Women's Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date04/09/2022
TypeCross Regional
BoatConn College FJ/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–2
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	14–5
3	Brown University	Bears	13–6
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	12–7
5	Harvard University	Crimson	11–8
6	Cornell University	Big Red	8–8
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	3–13
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	2–14
9	Connecticut College	Camels	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,258 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 78 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.389 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.21: an orderly event, more orderly than 76% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.03 school +0.28	Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 3.23 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 8–2 Carmen Cowles / Meredith Ryan 3.37 6–2 Carmen Cowles / Ximena Escobar 3.39 6–0 Megan Grimes / Meredith Ryan 2.73 6–0 Carmen Cowles / Megan Grimes 3.44 2–0	90%	14–2 (88%)	−0.4
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	8.11 school +0.34	Gray Hemans / Caroline Oyster 2.72 Sarah Young / Elise Donovan 2.33 Taylor Eastman / Aisling Sullivan 2.70 13–3 Taylor Eastman / Eliza Crocker 2.50 1–2	52%	14–5 (74%)	+4.2
3	Brown University Bears	2	9.06 school +0.28	Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth 2.92 Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 2.81 Caroline Bayless / Nora Ong 3.01 9–6 Caroline Bayless / Menasha Leport 3.09 4–0	72%	13–6 (68%)	−0.6
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	8.46	Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 2.98 Kaila Pfrang / Maile Jim 2.73 10–5 Brooke Schmelz / Mercedes Escandon 2.86 7–7 Brooke Schmelz / Grace Mao 2.94 5–0 Julia Wyatt / Maile Jim 2.25 2–2	61%	12–7 (63%)	+0.3
5	Harvard University Crimson	4	8.32 school +0.24	Cordelia Burn / Cindy Tian 2.46 Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.78 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.81	57%	11–8 (58%)	+0.2
6	Cornell University Big Red	6	7.89 school −0.08	Brooke Shachoy / Amelia Neumann 2.70 Lauren Ehnot / Gabbi Delbello 2.32 Bridget Green / Jana Laurendeau 2.92	50%	8–8 (50%)	+0.0
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	6.82 school +0.38	Caylin Schnoor / Claire Buckley 2.03 Claire Siegel-Wilson / Julia O'Connor 2.42 Michaela Odonnell / Jaqueline Frode 1.92	30%	3–13 (19%)	−1.7
8	Tufts University Jumbos	8	6.06 school +0.13	Annika Fedde / Hailey Mckelvie 2.20 Julia Shannon-Grillo / Caroline Kelly 1.73 Samantha Jensen / Adelaide Straub 1.91	18%	2–14 (12%)	−0.8
9	Connecticut College Camels	9	5.79 school +0.37, home +0.36	Aili Moffet / Clifton Carragher 1.94 Hailey Pemberton / Ashley Breyer 1.65 Miya Preyer / Alexandra Wagner 1.42	13%	1–15 (6%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Dartmouth College	8.11	9.38	14–5	9.8	+1.26	3.7	2%
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.46	8.57	12–7	11.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
5	Harvard University	8.32	8.38	11–8	10.8	+0.06	0.0	57%
6	Cornell University	7.89	7.89	8–8	8.0	−0.00	0.0	62%
3	Brown University	9.06	8.85	13–6	13.6	−0.20	0.1	75%
1	Yale University	10.03	9.78	14–2	14.4	−0.25	0.1	79%
8	Tufts University	6.06	5.56	2–14	2.8	−0.50	0.3	84%
7	Roger Williams University	6.82	5.99	3–13	4.7	−0.83	1.0	94%
9	Connecticut College	5.79	4.84	1–15	2.1	−0.96	0.7	92%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Brooke Shachoy	Cornell University	2.70	2.80	12–7	11.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	2.46	2.52	11–8	10.8	+0.06	0.0	57%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.81	2.87	11–8	10.8	+0.06	0.0	57%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.37	3.12	14–2	14.4	−0.25	0.1	79%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.23	2.98	14–2	14.4	−0.25	0.1	79%
Annika Fedde	Tufts University	2.20	1.71	2–14	2.8	−0.50	0.3	84%
Claire Siegel-Wilson	Roger Williams University	2.42	1.59	3–13	4.7	−0.83	1.0	94%
Michaela Odonnell	Roger Williams University	1.92	1.09	3–13	4.7	−0.83	1.0	94%
Aili Moffet	Connecticut College	1.94	0.99	1–15	2.1	−0.96	0.7	92%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	58%
1	2	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	56%
1	3	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
1	4	Yale University	Brown University	76%
1	5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	95%
1	6	Harvard University	Cornell University	60%
1	7	Brown University	Tufts University	95%
1	8	Yale University	Dartmouth College	89%
1	9	Harvard University	Connecticut College	93%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	85%
1	11	Yale University	Cornell University	91%
1	12	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	89%
1	13	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
1	14	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	82%
1	15	Yale University	Connecticut College	98%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Brown University	29%	upset
1	17	Cornell University	Tufts University	86%
1	18	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	74%
1	19	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
1	20	Harvard University	Tufts University	91%
1	21	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	91%
1	22	Brown University	Cornell University	76%
1	23	Yale University	Roger Williams University	95%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	88%
1	25	Harvard University	Brown University	33%	upset
1	26	Cornell University	Connecticut College	89%
1	27	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	79%
1	28	Yale University	Tufts University	99%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	66%
1	30	Brown University	Connecticut College	97%
1	31	Harvard University	Yale University	13%	upset
1	32	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	40%	upset
1	33	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	75%
1	34	Connecticut College	Tufts University	43%	upset
1	35	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	60%
1	36	Brown University	Roger Williams University	91%
2	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	58%
2	38	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
2	39	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	68%
2	40	Brown University	Yale University	23%	upset
2	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	94%
2	42	Cornell University	Harvard University	39%	upset
2	43	Brown University	Tufts University	95%
2	44	Yale University	Dartmouth College	89%
2	45	Harvard University	Connecticut College	93%
2	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	85%
2	47	Yale University	Cornell University	91%
2	48	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	89%
2	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	38%	upset
2	50	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	82%
2	51	Yale University	Connecticut College	98%
2	52	Dartmouth College	Brown University	29%	upset
2	53	Cornell University	Tufts University	86%
2	54	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	74%
2	55	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
2	56	Harvard University	Tufts University	90%
2	57	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	91%
2	58	Brown University	Cornell University	76%
2	59	Yale University	Roger Williams University	94%
2	60	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	88%
2	61	Brown University	Harvard University	67%
2	62	Cornell University	Connecticut College	89%
2	63	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	79%
2	64	Yale University	Tufts University	99%
2	65	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	66%
2	66	Brown University	Connecticut College	96%
2	67	Yale University	Harvard University	87%
2	68	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	41%	upset
2	69	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	74%
2	70	Tufts University	Connecticut College	57%
2	71	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	59%
2	72	Brown University	Roger Williams University	90%
3	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	57%
3	74	Dartmouth College	Brown University	29%	upset
3	75	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
3	76	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	41%	upset
3	77	Brown University	Harvard University	67%
3	78	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	41%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Engineers	Crimson	Red	Hawks	Jumbos	Camels
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–1	W	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Connecticut College Camels	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Engineers	Crimson	Red	Hawks	Jumbos	Camels
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–3	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–4	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–3	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Green	Bears	Engineers	Crimson
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
2	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
3	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
4	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
5	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
6	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
7	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
9	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
10	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
12	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
14	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
16	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
17	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
18	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
20	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
21	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
22	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
23	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
24	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
25	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
26	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
27	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
29	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
31	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
32	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
33	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
34	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
35	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
37	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
38	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
39	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
41	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
42	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
43	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
45	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
46	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
47	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
48	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
49	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
50	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
53	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
54	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
57	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
58	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
59	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
60	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
61	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
62	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
63	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
65	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
66	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
68	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
69	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
70	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
71	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
72	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
73	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
74	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
75	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
76	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
77	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
78	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Megan Grimes '24 Mia Nicolosi '25	Meredith Ryan '23 Ximena Escobar '25 Megan Grimes '24 Helena Ware '23
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Gray Hemans '25 Sarah Young '25 Taylor Eastman '24	Caroline Oyster '24 Elise Donovan '24 Eliza Crocker '23 Aisling Sullivan '22
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Brielle Willoughby '24 Caroline Bayless '23	Savannah Young '25 Emilia Ruth '23 Nora Ong '23 Menasha Leport '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Julia Wyatt '21 Kaila Pfrang '21	Grace Mao '23 Mercedes Escandon '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Maile Jim '22
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Cindy Tian '23 Juliana Ruggieri '23 Corinne Lee '23
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Brooke Shachoy '22 Lauren Ehnot '24	Jana Laurendeau '23 Amelia Neumann '25 Gabbi Delbello '23
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Caylin Schnoor '25 Claire Siegel-Wilson '24 Michaela Odonnell '24	Claire Buckley '25 Julia O'Connor '24 Jaqueline Frode '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	Annika Fedde '23 Julia Shannon-Grillo '24 Samantha Jensen '24	Hailey Mckelvie '22 Caroline Kelly '23 Adelaide Straub '24
Connecticut College	Camels	Aili Moffet '23 Hailey Pemberton '23 Miya Preyer '23	Clifton Carragher '25 Ashley Breyer '24 Alexandra Wagner '22

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1002.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.5 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 29.2 kn

From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1002.2 hPa Rain0.13 in

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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