Stu Nelson

# SchoolTeam A B C TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 30 63 41 134
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 42 47 59 148
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 73 67 52 192
4 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 71 66 56 193
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 70 51 77 198
6 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 105 88 66 259
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 92 65 104 261
8 Boston College Boston College Eagles 78 97 105 280
9 George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 110 94 87 291
10 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 88 110 109 307
11 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 90 115 102 307
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 100 112 96 308
13 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 140 117 138 395
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 1 1 1 3 4 2 1 2 2 5 6 30 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26
Abigail Tindall '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 4 1 3 8 12 42 Emma Cowles '25
Helena Ware '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 8 12 9 4 6 3 9 5 1 1 5 70 Lucy Brock '25
Jemma Schroder '24
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 11 5 10 1 3 9 3 6 13 3 3 71 Sarah Burn '24
Corinne Lee '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 RDG 8 4 7 2 10 2 3 11 6 9 73 Caroline Bayless '23
Menasha Leport '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 6 12 7 5 6 7 11 12 4 5 2 1 78 Libby Redmond '24
Katelyn Mcgauley '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 8 4 10 6 8 11 5 5 9 4 7 11 88 Madison Bashaw '24
Anna Flynn '25
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 10 6 11 3 5 5 6 11 8 8 10 7 90 Emma Shakespeare '24
Olivia Smith '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 2 3 11 11 10 12 8 7 6 9 4 92 J.J. Smith '24
Sophia Mulvania '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 7 4 8 12 9 4 13 10 7 13 2 100 Samantha Jensen '24 [1-12]
Adelaide Straub '24 [1-9]
Annabel De Alessi '25 [10-12]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 13 6 12 10 12 8 6 13 10 4 10 105 Caroline Benson '23
Ellie Spearman '25
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 13 10 9 7 9 8 7 7 12 9 11 8 110 Emma Aubuchon '23 [1-6, 10-12]
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [7-9]
Alexandra Lee '25 [1-6, 10-12]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 5 13 13 13 13 13 10 11 12 12 13 140 Hailey Pemberton '23 [1-3, 7-12]
Sophia Rey '26 [4-6]
Aurora Kreyche '25 [1-3]
Abigail Lenox '23 [4-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 4 6 2 1 1 2 3 9 6 7 1 47 Megan Grimes '24
Sarah Moeder '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 6 5 2 7 2 12 1 2 2 2 8 2 51 Brooke Schmelz '25
Samantha Karlson '25
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 8 11 8 3 3 6 4 1 3 1 12 3 63 Ellie Harned '26
Grace Austin '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 1 3 8 5 3 5 4 10 4 6 13 65 Sophia Devling '26
Sophia Pearce '26
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 13 3 4 4 8 2 3 6 5 9 1 8 66 Marbella Marlo '24
Juliana Ruggieri '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 10 1 13 7 4 7 7 4 3 4 6 67 Blaire Mccarthy '23
Francesca Edmands '25
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 12 9 6 10 10 8 5 1 11 3 11 88 Mia Hanes '24
Essie Clifton '25
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 4 6 12 12 4 5 11 9 6 5 13 7 94 Islay Van Dusen '23
Zoe Barros O'Haren '24
Boston College Boston College Eagles 9 13 10 1 6 8 6 8 11 8 5 12 97 Caroline Sibilly '26
Sophia Hacket '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 12 2 5 9 13 13 13 12 7 10 9 5 110 Leah Rickard '26 [1-6, 9-12]
Cho-Cho Williams '26 [7-8]
Emma Gronda '22 [1-6, 9-12]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 8 11 5 9 9 9 10 8 12 11 9 112 Annika Fedde '23
Alessandra Torres '24
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 9 13 10 12 11 10 11 13 13 2 4 115 Heidi Hicks '25
Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 10 7 7 11 11 7 12 13 12 7 10 10 117 Aili Moffet '23
Miya Preyer '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 5 2 2 5 7 1 5 1 2 6 4 1 41 Sophie Fisher '26
Isabelle Mcnabb '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 4 10 2 6 9 1 4 9 2 1 2 52 Brielle Willoughby '24
Emilia Ruth '23
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 7 3 1 2 6 6 3 10 4 7 3 56 Cordelia Burn '25
Emily Launderville '24
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 1 6 3 3 5 4 2 13 1 11 9 59 Ximena Escobar '25
Carmen Berg '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 8 3 8 7 4 3 3 8 1 5 5 11 66 Lucy Spearman '25
Abigail Borggaard '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 12 5 4 4 1 2 7 6 5 9 10 12 77 Emily Scherer '23
Yitian Zhu '25
George Washington University George Washington University Buff and Blue 11 10 7 11 8 4 10 9 4 3 2 8 87 Avery Canavan '25
Elizabeth Ellis '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 6 5 6 9 7 12 12 12 8 9 7 96 Maisie Macgillivray '25
Naomi Pedersen '25
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6 13 1 9 5 13 13 11 8 7 6 10 102 Kay Brunsvold '25
Lily Theisen '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 9 12 10 12 8 8 5 3 11 12 5 104 Sophia Peck '26
Clara Hewson '24
Boston College Boston College Eagles 13 8 11 13 10 10 2 10 7 12 3 6 105 Lourdes Gallo '24
Lilly Mathieu '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10 11 9 8 11 11 11 7 6 13 8 4 109 Lily Flack '25
Katherine Shermock '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7 12 13 12 13 12 9 13 11 10 13 13 138 Izzy Wu-Karr '26 [1-12]
Abigail Lenox '23 [1-6]
Aurora Kreyche '25 [7-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles111222333444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222111141414131313
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels333444555666
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red444333222111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue555666777888
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson666555444333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers777888999101010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121212111111101010999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks888777666555
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal999101010111111121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos101010999888777
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave111111121212131313141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs131313141414111222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles111222333444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222111141414131313
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels333444555666
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red444333222111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue555666777888
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson666555444333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers777888999101010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121212111111101010999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks888777666555
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal999101010111111121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos101010999888777
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave111111121212131313141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs131313141414111222

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles111222333444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222111141414131313
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels333444555666
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red444333222111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Buff and Blue555666777888
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson666555444333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers777888999101010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121212111111101010999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks888777666555
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal999101010111111121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos101010999888777
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave111111121212131313141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs131313141414111222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Libby Redmond '24 Katelyn Mcgauley '24
Eagles Caroline Sibilly '26 Sophia Hacket '25
Lourdes Gallo '24 Lilly Mathieu '23
Brown University Brown University Caroline Bayless '23 Menasha Leport '25
Bears Blaire Mccarthy '23 Francesca Edmands '25
Brielle Willoughby '24 Emilia Ruth '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Hailey Pemberton '23 [1-3, 7-12]
Sophia Rey '26 [4-6]
Aurora Kreyche '25 [1-3]
Abigail Lenox '23 [4-12]
Camels Aili Moffet '23 Miya Preyer '23
Izzy Wu-Karr '26 [1-12] Abigail Lenox '23 [1-6]
Aurora Kreyche '25 [7-12]
Cornell University Cornell University J.J. Smith '24 Sophia Mulvania '26
Big Red Sophia Devling '26 Sophia Pearce '26
Sophia Peck '26 Clara Hewson '24
George Washington University George Washington University Emma Aubuchon '23 [1-6, 10-12]
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 [7-9]
Alexandra Lee '25 [1-6, 10-12]
Buff and Blue Islay Van Dusen '23 Zoe Barros O'Haren '24
Avery Canavan '25 Elizabeth Ellis '24
Harvard University Harvard University Sarah Burn '24 Corinne Lee '23
Crimson Marbella Marlo '24 Juliana Ruggieri '23
Cordelia Burn '25 Emily Launderville '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lucy Brock '25 Jemma Schroder '24
Engineers Brooke Schmelz '25 Samantha Karlson '25
Emily Scherer '23 Yitian Zhu '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Madison Bashaw '24 Anna Flynn '25
Seahawks Leah Rickard '26 [1-6, 9-12]
Cho-Cho Williams '26 [7-8]
Emma Gronda '22 [1-6, 9-12]
Lily Flack '25 Katherine Shermock '24
Stanford University Stanford University Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 Abigail Tindall '23
Cardinal Ellie Harned '26 Grace Austin '24
Sophie Fisher '26 Isabelle Mcnabb '26
Tufts University Tufts University Samantha Jensen '24 [1-12] Adelaide Straub '24 [1-9]
Annabel De Alessi '25 [10-12]
Jumbos Annika Fedde '23 Alessandra Torres '24
Maisie Macgillivray '25 Naomi Pedersen '25
Tulane University Tulane University Caroline Benson '23 Ellie Spearman '25
Green Wave Mia Hanes '24 Essie Clifton '25
Lucy Spearman '25 Abigail Borggaard '24
University of South Florida University of South Florida Emma Shakespeare '24 Olivia Smith '23
Bulls Heidi Hicks '25 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24
Kay Brunsvold '25 Lily Theisen '23
Yale University Yale University Emma Cowles '25 Helena Ware '23
Bulldogs Megan Grimes '24 Sarah Moeder '26
Ximena Escobar '25 Carmen Berg '26

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1019.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn* · W 10 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Connecticut College: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.25
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.22 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →