Boston College '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 (fleet 3.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–24 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (60 matches) the record is 36–24 against 35.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.57 | 3.33 | 6–6 | 6.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.00 | 3.24 | 6–12 | 5.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 42% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 3.42 | 13–2 | 12.2 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.46 | 2.34 | 11–4 | 11.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.9 | 4.33 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.0 | 3.73 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 3.92 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.1 | 4.46 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.4 | 3.72 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 4.20 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 3.78 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 3.61 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 2.92 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.9 | 3.42 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 4.46 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.7 | 3.74 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.4 | 3.97 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 3.23 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.5 | 3.92 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 3.86 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.4 | 3.45 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.2 | 4.32 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.0 | 3.39 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.0 | 3.11 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 3.61 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 3.49 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 2.9 | 4.01 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.9 | 3.51 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 3.29 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.8 | 3.19 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.5 | 3.56 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 3.95 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.4 | 3.61 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.5 | 2.69 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.7 | 2.62 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 4.6 | 3.47 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.3 | 3.62 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 3.57 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 3.17 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 2.50 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 2.93 |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.6 | 2.77 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | 2.63 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 3.56 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 2.44 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 3.97 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.6 | 3.09 |
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.81 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | 2.56 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 2.97 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.9 | 2.07 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
