Massachusetts Institute of Technology '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–22 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 19–14 against 18.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.54 | 1.34 | 6–12 | 10.3 | −1.20 | 3.7 | 99% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.06 | 4.15 | 13–2 | 7.9 | +2.09 | 7.0 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 11.5 | 2.31 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.3 | 2.90 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 3.73 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 3.30 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 1.82 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.71 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 3.34 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.6 | 2.23 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 7.7 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.0 | 2.50 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.6 | 2.56 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.9 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.8 | 2.04 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | 2.56 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 0.76 |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 2.25 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.5 | 1.75 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.1 | — |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.4 | 1.98 |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 2.50 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 1.74 |
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 9.7 | — |
| NEISA Central Series | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 1.34 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | 1.01 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | 1.28 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 1.16 |
| BU invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | -1.04 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
