Massachusetts Institute of Technology '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 51.94 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.072 rating points from 395 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 14–7 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 14–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 14–7 against 16.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.20 | 2.43 | 14–7 | 16.8 | −0.77 | 1.6 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 7.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 6.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Crew | B | 14 | 8.6 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 3.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A, B | 7 | 10.4 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 13.1 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 6.1 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A, B | 11 | 7.2 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 7.7 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 7.8 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 8.5 | — |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.2 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 4.7 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 6.8 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 11.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 4.4 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 11.8 | — |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Crew | A | 10 | 5.1 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 15.2 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 6.3 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 9.8 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 6.7 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 12.6 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 5.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Crew | B | 5 | 4.2 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 5.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 4.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 5.6 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 7.9 | — |
| Crews Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 3.7 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 8 | 9.2 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 7.5 | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 8.1 | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 5.4 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | C | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Crew | A | 17 | 5.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 9.2 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.0 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 11.6 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 9.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
