Bowdoin College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 10.65 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.109 rating points from 27 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–31 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 15–10 against 15.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.88 | 1.50 | 3–4 | 5.1 | −1.38 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.02 | 3.45 | 12–6 | 10.5 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 5.9 | 3.98 |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.32 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 3.19 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.1 | 3.31 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.6 | 3.91 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.6 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | 3.07 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.0 | 3.66 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 4.00 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.2 | 3.67 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 3.79 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.88 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.3 | 3.71 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.4 | 3.06 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.6 | 4.95 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 3.44 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 3.94 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.4 | 3.82 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Crew | A | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 2.77 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 2.35 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.8 | 3.19 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Crew | B | 13 | 12.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 3.51 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.33 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 3.48 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 2.54 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 3.03 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.8 | 3.75 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 4.7 | 3.89 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.1 | 2.71 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 2.31 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.3 | 3.14 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.2 | 3.35 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.4 | 3.33 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.0 | 3.36 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.91 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.3 | 2.59 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.7 | 2.62 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 3.01 |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A | 10 | 7.1 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | 2.51 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 2.50 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 2.37 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 2.73 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.5 | 0.45 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | 2.36 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 15.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.38 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 1.86 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.0 | 2.38 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.3 | 2.22 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | 1.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
