Massachusetts Institute of Technology '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 61.55 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 27 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–20 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 6–12 against 10.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.87 | 1.66 | 6–12 | 10.3 | −1.20 | 3.7 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.8 | 2.99 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.0 | 2.76 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.91 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 4.26 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | A, B | 5 | 10.8 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.2 | 3.41 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 2.12 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.2 | 2.60 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 3.68 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.3 | 3.46 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 3.39 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.8 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 3.33 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.4 | 3.06 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.1 | 3.11 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.0 | 2.99 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 3.09 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.5 | 2.77 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 3.65 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.0 | 4.73 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 8.8 | 2.54 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.8 | 2.93 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 2.41 |
| Crews Regatta 2013 | Crew | A | 6 | 2.2 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 2.94 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 3.40 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.8 | 2.67 |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.3 | 1.42 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.2 | 3.37 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.2 | 3.29 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.7 | 3.36 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.4 | 2.83 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.4 | 2.86 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.75 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.4 | 1.03 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.9 | 2.60 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.4 | 3.38 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.2 | 2.27 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.7 | 2.15 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.4 | 2.06 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 3.21 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.2 | 1.69 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 2.03 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 10.5 | 1.39 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 3.12 |
| Crews Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.9 | 2.26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
