Harvard University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.07 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–38 (10%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 1–14 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 4–26 against 12.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.65 | 0.81 | 3–12 | 7.5 | −1.84 | 5.4 | >99% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.48 | -0.33 | 1–14 | 4.9 | −2.82 | 6.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 3.24 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.4 | 3.02 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.7 | 2.42 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.6 | 2.26 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 2.71 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.8 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 3.08 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.9 | 2.72 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 3.08 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.6 | 2.99 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.37 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.7 | 3.24 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.50 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.2 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.0 | 2.31 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.1 | 2.19 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.3 | 2.46 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 2.86 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 2.86 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 2.40 |
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.8 | 2.24 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 3.17 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 1.96 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 1.97 |
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 0.87 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.15 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 2.40 |
| Connecticut College Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | 0.65 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.5 | 0.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
