Boston College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 20.28 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.092 rating points from 117 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–25 (42%) as crew 9–7 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 6–12 | 8–2 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 1–5 |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 11–3 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 1–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 15–19 against 15.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 4.06 | 4.05 | 8–2 | 8.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.06 | 2.30 | 6–12 | 5.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 42% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 3.05 | 1.83 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.22 | 0.9 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 5.2 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.6 | 2.10 |
| Harman cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.9 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | A | 4 | 7.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 11.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 2.5 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.44 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 6.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 17 | 13.8 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 15 | 7.5 | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 9.9 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 22 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 5.2 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 9.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.0 | 2.67 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 3.7 | — |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 11.0 | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 1.93 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
