2012 Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta

HostTexas A&M Galveston
Date02/11/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	74	25	99
2	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	20	96	116
3	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	66	52	118
4	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	68	55	123
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	45	78	123
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	96 MRP	54 MRP	150 MRP
7	Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	93	61	154
8	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	53	119	172
9	Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	131	87	218
10	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	60	168	228
11	University of Texas	Longhorns	139	104	243
12	Texas A&M University	Aggies 3	123	129	252
13	Rice University	Rice	137	168	305

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	2	2	1	1	2	1	5	2	1	1	1	1	20	Jonathan Atwood '12 Sara Stafford '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	11	3	5	3	4	2	4	3	4	2	2	2	45	Collin Weston '13 Leslie Holt '12
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	1	5	4	9	1	3	3	1	5	6	8	7	53	Benjamin Kennady '13 Vianne Euresti '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	7	1	2	6	7	5	2	9	3	5	5	8	60	Coleman Terrell '14 Daniela Perrigo '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	3	7	7	8	5	4	9	4	8	4	4	3	66	Margot Provensal '13 Amanda Reyes '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	6	4	3	2	6	6	1	10	9	7	9	5	68	Alfred Robbins '12 Megan Chan Chow '13
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	8	8	11	5	3	9	7	8	2	3	6	4	74	Nathaniel Walden '12 Rebecca Jegier '15
Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	5	9	6	7	8	11	10	6	7	8	7	9	93	Robert Long '12 Lauren Ostrowski '14
Tulane University	Green Wave	10	6	9	4	BKD	BKD	6	5	6	9	3	6	96 MRP	Schuyler Hemmerdinger '12 Alexandra Payne '15
Texas A&M University	Aggies 3	4	12	12	10	9	7	11	12	11	13	10	12	123	Travis Conger '14 Edgar Alvarez '14
Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	9	10	8	13	12	10	8	11	10	12	DSQ	DSQ	131	Chelsea Bethancourt '12 Katherine Biancardi '15
Rice University	Rice	DNF	13	13	11	11	8	12	7	12	11	DSQ	11	137	Andrew Martin-De-Nicolas '13 Ciara Ayala '13
University of Texas	Longhorns	DSQ	11	10	12	10	12	13	13	13	10	11	10	139	William Cragin '15 [1-2, 9-10] Matt Lenz '13 [3-8, 11-12] Matt Lenz '13 [1-2, 9-10] William Cragin '15 [3-8, 11-12]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	3	3	1	1	3	3	1	3	4	1	1	1	25	Mike Flanigan '15 Sarah Eide '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	2	4	4	7	4	4	4	4	6	5	3	5	52	Aly Gazzola '14 Jessica Malone '12
Tulane University	Green Wave	1	2	7	2	1	1	6	1	3	2	6	2	54 MRP	Mackenzie Milne '13 [1-10] Jacob Shulist '13 [11-12] Jacob Shulist '13 [1-10] Caroline Harris '13 [11-12]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	6	5	3	5	6	8	3	7	1	6	2	3	55	Emmett Dickheiser '15 Lauren Hollis '15
Texas A&M University	Aggies 1	4	1	2	4	2	2	7	2	5	4	DSQ	DSQ	61	Conner Fullerton '12 Kerry Pelton '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	5	10	5	8	DSQ	6	8	5	2	3	4	8	78	Timothy Kurtin Ii '14 Kayla Sjoberg '14
Texas A&M University	Aggies 2	DSQ	6	8	6	5	9	5	9	7	7	7	4	87	Michael Koletsos '13 Stephanie Mcbride '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	8	7	10	9	7	5	10	10	9	9	5	7	96	Cameron Hicks '15 Diego Gevaudan '15
University of Texas	Longhorns	9	8	9	10	OCS	7	9	8	8	8	8	6	104	Sarah Douglas '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Conor Puckett '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12] Richard Bagans '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Marissa Morrison '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	7	9	11	11	8	10	DNF	11	10	10	9	9	119	Amanda Arrowood '15 Madeleine Gallagher '14
Texas A&M University	Aggies 3	DSQ	DSQ	6	3	DSQ	DSQ	2	6	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	129	Muhammad Hisham Uddin '14 [1-12] Austin Hardegree '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Michael Hearn '13 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	168	Paige Meineke '14 Matt Luis '13
Rice University	Rice	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	168	Nicholas Robbins '15 Ian Morrison '13

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Rice University Rice	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Texas Longhorns	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Texas A&M University Aggies 1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Texas A&M University Aggies 2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1
Texas A&M University Aggies 3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 5	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Tulane University Green Wave	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Rice University Rice	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Texas Longhorns	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Texas A&M University Aggies 1	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1
Texas A&M University Aggies 2	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2
Texas A&M University Aggies 3	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 5	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Tulane University Green Wave	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Rice University	Andrew Martin-De-Nicolas '13	Ciara Ayala '13
Rice	Nicholas Robbins '15	Ian Morrison '13
Texas A&M University	Robert Long '12	Lauren Ostrowski '14
Aggies 1	Conner Fullerton '12	Kerry Pelton '13
Texas A&M University	Chelsea Bethancourt '12	Katherine Biancardi '15
Aggies 2	Michael Koletsos '13	Stephanie Mcbride '14
Texas A&M University	Travis Conger '14	Edgar Alvarez '14
Aggies 3	Muhammad Hisham Uddin '14 [1-12]	Austin Hardegree '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Michael Hearn '13 [3-4, 7-8]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Collin Weston '13	Leslie Holt '12
Aggies 1	Timothy Kurtin Ii '14	Kayla Sjoberg '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Margot Provensal '13	Amanda Reyes '15
Aggies 2	Aly Gazzola '14	Jessica Malone '12
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Alfred Robbins '12	Megan Chan Chow '13
Aggies 3	Emmett Dickheiser '15	Lauren Hollis '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Jonathan Atwood '12	Sara Stafford '15
Aggies 4	Cameron Hicks '15	Diego Gevaudan '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Coleman Terrell '14	Daniela Perrigo '14
Aggies 5	Paige Meineke '14	Matt Luis '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Benjamin Kennady '13	Vianne Euresti '13
Aggies 6	Amanda Arrowood '15	Madeleine Gallagher '14
Tulane University	Schuyler Hemmerdinger '12	Alexandra Payne '15
Green Wave	Mackenzie Milne '13 [1-10] Jacob Shulist '13 [11-12]	Jacob Shulist '13 [1-10] Caroline Harris '13 [11-12]
University of Notre Dame	Nathaniel Walden '12	Rebecca Jegier '15
Fighting Irish	Mike Flanigan '15	Sarah Eide '14
University of Texas	William Cragin '15 [1-2, 9-10] Matt Lenz '13 [3-8, 11-12]	Matt Lenz '13 [1-2, 9-10] William Cragin '15 [3-8, 11-12]
Longhorns	Sarah Douglas '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Conor Puckett '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]	Richard Bagans '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Marissa Morrison '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]

Conditions — 02/11/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1029.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.5 kn

avg · max 12.4 kn

Gusts to 23.7 kn

From NNE (12°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1029.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 15 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Texas A&M Galveston: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Texas A&M Galveston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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