University of Michigan '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.26 (fleet 1.74) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–0 (100%) as crew 1–6 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 1–6 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 9–6 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | crew | 2.48 | 0.43 | 1–6 | 2.9 | −2.06 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.64 | 4.64 | 8–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Laker Showdown | Crew | A | 4 | 2.8 | +0.07 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Boudeman Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.5 | 2.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
