Laker Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 11 8 19
2 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 5 19 24
3 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 12 21 33
4 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 22 14 36
5 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 31 12 43
6 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 36 17 53
7 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 21 37 58
8 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 16 43 MRP 59 MRP
9 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 41 30 71
10 Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 33 43 76
11 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 36 40 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 1 2 1 1 5 Greg Bittle '25
Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 1 5 3 11 Billy Vogel '25
Kyle Brown '26
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 3 2 4 12 Joseph Gallagher '24 [1-2]
Joseph Thuente '24 [3-4]
Carmela D’Antuono '24 [1-2]
John Szymanski '25 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 6 5 3 2 16 Jack Miller '26
Ryan Dodge '26
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 5 4 7 5 21 Clark Davis '24
Markus Tam '24
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 4 7 4 7 22 Andrew Michels '25
Fritz Jaeger '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 7 8 6 10 31 Carly Irwin '25
Audrey Whitaker '23
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 8 6 11 8 33 Avie Krauss '24 [1-4]
Piper Luke '26 [1-2]
Adam Bryan '26 [3-4]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 9 9 9 9 36 Jack Rutherford '25 [1-2]
Jack Bergman '24 [3-4]
Jennifer Falkner '24 [1-2]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [3-4]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 11 11 8 6 36 Michael Gartlan '23
Mathew Boemmel '26
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 10 10 10 11 41 Keegan Aerts '25
Christopher Mayo '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 3 1 8 Adrian Stone '25
Bryson Denuyl '24
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 4 1 2 5 12 Reid Kwiatkowski '26
Reed Rossell '25
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 2 4 4 4 14 Cecilia Dietsch '26
William Blacketor '24
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 7 7 1 2 17 Edmund Redman '26
Connor Bricco '26
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 5 6 5 3 19 Rakesh Dhiman '26
Andre Bedros '26
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6 2 7 6 21 Jack O'Connor '26
John Sullivan '26
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 8 8 6 8 30 Abigale Airo '24
William Moran '26
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 10 9 9 9 37 Arseniy Titov '26
Ivan Shilov '25
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 9 10 11 10 40 Maggie Lennon '26 [1-2]
Zachary Warren '26 [3-4]
Eric Thomas '24 [1-2]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 3 5 8 7 43 MRP Eva Rossell '23 [1-4]
Alexander Maas '24 [1-2]
Spencer Margolis '26 [3-4]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 11 11 10 11 43 Morgan Lovegrove '24
Harley Mordarski '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers2244
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen3355
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini881010
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes991111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines10101212
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans4466
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One5577
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish11111313
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals7799
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies121211
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers3355
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen4466
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini991111
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes10101212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines11111313
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans5577
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One6688
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish121211
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals881010
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies131322
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1133

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 999.8 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.4 kn
avg  ·  max 16.8 kn
Gusts to 33.8 kn
From WNW (295°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure999.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 16 kn* · S 10 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Grand Valley State: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Valley State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Grand Valley State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →