University of Wisconsin '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 (fleet 0.75) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–5 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 10–5 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 0.62 | 2.59 | 10–5 | 5.9 | +1.97 | 5.7 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 13 | 16.5 | 0.38 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 1.35 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | 0.36 |
| Wisconsin's 3 Division Regatta | Skipper | C | 6 | 3.3 | 1.45 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
