University of Miami '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–29 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 9–3 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 27–29 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.61 | 1.15 | 2–10 | 2.8 | −0.46 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-09-22 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.49 | 0.58 | 9–3 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.5 | 94% |
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.47 | 1.70 | 3–5 | 2.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2017-09-16 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.68 | 2.15 | 10–2 | 9.2 | +0.46 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.53 | 2.04 | 3–9 | 2.5 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 49% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Crew | A | 4 | 12.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Michael Stone |  University of Minnesota |
'19 |
| ISSA | Michael Stone |  Southwest High School |
'15 |
| ISSA | Michael Stone |  Blake School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
