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MCSA Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 9–3
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 8–4
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5–7
4 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,699 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 24 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.576 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.26 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 20% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Wisconsin
Badgers		17.94Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.73
Christian Spencer / Maggie Houtz
Samuel Bartel / William Huerth 2.65 6–2
Samuel Bartel / Kate Britt 2.67 3–1		88%9–3 (75%)−1.6
2University of Michigan
Wolverines		26.41
school −0.12, home +0.36		Harrison George / Kristen Picard
Connor Goulet / Sarah Silvestri 2.10
Jenna Probst / Margaret Carroll		52%8–4 (67%)+1.8
3Northwestern University
Wildcats		35.84
school −0.24		Ryder Easterlin / Mitchell Moore 2.40
Will Davies / Katherine O'Donnell 1.96
Anton De Lesseps / Audrey Debruine		36%5–7 (42%)+0.7
4University of Minnesota
Gophers		45.35
school +0.24		Alexander Mckee / Bailey Adkins 1.03
Michael Stone / Kendall Van Horne 1.61
Carl Eaton / Victor Nartovich 2.40 0–8
Carl Eaton / Clara Brown 2.42 2–2		23%2–10 (17%)−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Michigan6.417.248–46.3+0.831.020%
3Northwestern University5.846.135–74.4+0.280.145%
4University of Minnesota5.354.892–102.8−0.460.382%
1University of Wisconsin7.947.009–310.6−0.941.296%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Anton De LessepsNorthwestern University1.671.955–74.4+0.280.145%
Alexander MckeeUniversity of Minnesota1.030.572–102.8−0.460.382%
Charlie KutschenreuterUniversity of Wisconsin2.731.799–310.6−0.941.296%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Minnesota62%
12University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan84%
13University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota93%
14University of MichiganNorthwestern University60%
15University of WisconsinNorthwestern University89%
16University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota73%
27University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan83%
28University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University38%upset
29University of MichiganNorthwestern University64%
210University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota93%
211University of WisconsinNorthwestern University89%
212University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota75%
313University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin18%upset
314University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University38%upset
315University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota93%
316University of MichiganNorthwestern University65%
317University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota76%
318Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin11%upset
419Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Minnesota62%
420University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan82%
421Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Michigan34%upset
422University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota93%
423University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota76%
424Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin10%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesWildcatsGophers
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–0✕WWW
University of Michigan Wolverines2–1L✕WW
Northwestern University Wildcats1–2LL✕W
University of Minnesota Gophers0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesWildcatsGophers
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–0✕WWW
University of Michigan Wolverines2–1L✕WW
Northwestern University Wildcats0–3LL✕L
University of Minnesota Gophers1–2LLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesWildcatsGophers
University of Wisconsin Badgers1–2✕LLW
University of Michigan Wolverines3–0W✕WW
Northwestern University Wildcats1–2WL✕L
University of Minnesota Gophers1–2LLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesWildcatsGophers
University of Wisconsin Badgers2–1✕WLW
University of Michigan Wolverines1–2L✕LW
Northwestern University Wildcats3–0WW✕W
University of Minnesota Gophers0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-5
2 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 4-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 4-5-6
4 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
5 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
6 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2-3-6
7 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-6 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-5
8 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
9 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-6
11 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
12 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 4-5-6
13 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-6
14 University of Minnesota Gophers 2-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-6
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-5-6
16 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
17 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-5
18 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-6
19 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-5
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-5-6
21 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-6 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 2-4-5
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 4-5-6
23 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-5-6
24 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-5

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.9 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 27.8 kn
From WSW (250°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →