University of Minnesota '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.04 (fleet -0.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–18 (14%) as crew 0–8 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 0–8 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 3–26 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-26 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 0.41 | -2.59 | 0–9 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2019-04-13 | MCSA Team Race Championship | crew | 2.40 | -0.60 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2018-09-22 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | -0.12 | -1.11 | 3–9 | 4.4 | −1.00 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 0.15 |
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.5 | 0.27 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NWU Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | -0.44 |
| Mendota Madness | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.6 | -2.01 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | -0.61 |
| Great Lakes Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 9.9 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | -0.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
