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Streufert Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 11–1
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 9–3
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 7–5
4 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3–9
5 Carthage College Carthage College Red Men 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,058 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.279 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.43: a typical event, more orderly than 69% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Wisconsin
Badgers 1		16.53
school −0.09		Tye Rubin / Kate Britt
Jonathan Bailey / Anna Thickens 2.57
Thomas Kelly / Lucas Quinn		87%8–1 (89%)+0.2
2University of Wisconsin
Badgers 2		25.06
school −0.09		Peter Sauer / William Davis 1.61
Adam Mcavoy / Noah Hallerman
Patrick Schmidt / Kate Thickens 1.81		55%6–3 (67%)+1.0
3University of Minnesota
Gophers 1		35.00
school +0.18, home +0.38		Carl Eaton / Cassandra Trask 2.58
Clara Brown / Sophie Inglis 1.22
Jack Rickman / Madeline Jones		55%4–5 (44%)−1.0
4University of Minnesota
Gophers 2		41.70
school +0.18, home +0.38		Victor Nartovich / Nicole Nelson 0.41
Kendall Van Horne / Meara Cline
Matthew Granstrom / Erin Bouton		3%0–9 (0%)−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Wisconsin Badgers 25.065.826–35.0+0.760.631%
1University of Wisconsin Badgers 16.536.698–17.9+0.170.068%
3University of Minnesota Gophers 15.004.214–54.9−0.790.591%
4University of Minnesota Gophers 21.70-1.300–90.2≤−3.000.3>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Adam McavoyUniversity of Wisconsin1.382.146–35.0+0.760.631%
Thomas KellyUniversity of Wisconsin1.872.048–17.9+0.170.068%
Jack RickmanUniversity of Minnesota0.40-0.384–54.9−0.790.591%
Victor NartovichUniversity of Minnesota0.41-2.590–90.2≤−3.000.3>99%
Matthew GranstromUniversity of Minnesota-0.16-3.160–90.2≤−3.000.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 296%
13University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 146%upset
15University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 282%
17University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 299%
19University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 183%
110University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
211University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 296%
213University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 249%upset
215University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 120%upset
217University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 299%
219University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 182%
220University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
321University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
323University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 152%
325University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 279%
327University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 299%
329University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 181%
330University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 297%

Round 1

TeamRec.1212Men
University of Wisconsin Badgers 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 27–1✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 13–5LL✕✕W
University of Minnesota Gophers 23–5LL✕✕W
Carthage College Red Men0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1212Men
University of Wisconsin Badgers 16–2✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 26–2✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 14–4LL✕✕W
University of Minnesota Gophers 24–4LL✕✕W
Carthage College Red Men0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1212Men
University of Wisconsin Badgers 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 27–1✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 13–5LL✕✕W
University of Minnesota Gophers 23–5LL✕✕W
Carthage College Red Men0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2-5-6
2 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-5-6
4 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
5 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-6
6 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
7 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
8 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
9 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
11 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
12 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
13 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-3-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-4-5
14 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3-4-5
16 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
17 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
19 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-5-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-5-6
21 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
23 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 4-5-6
24 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-4-6
26 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
27 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Carthage College Red Men 4-5-6
29 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 4-5-6
30 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-5-6

Conditions — 10/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1009.6 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.6 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From SSE (164°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1009.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnesota — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnesota in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →