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Streufert Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 12–0
2 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 9–3
3 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 6–6
4 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3–9
5 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,764 team race matches sailed before 2018-09-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.175 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.42 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Wisconsin
Badgers		16.87
school −0.06		Samuel Bartel / Patrick Stiles
Douglas Wake / Thomas Kelly
Jonathan Bailey / Zach Childs		92%12–0 (100%)+0.9
2University of Minnesota
Gophers 1		25.88
school +0.37, home +0.42		Carl Eaton / Kendall Van Horne 2.46
Michael Stone / Bailey Adkins 1.49
Alexander Mckee / Jenna Pleshek		81%9–3 (75%)−0.7
3University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
Panthers		42.09
school −0.06		Tom Rorrer / Susie Voltz
Dominique Hamilton / Adam Stollenwerk
Sydney Maxwell / Alphia Korpela 6–0
Sydney Maxwell / Jack Bertram 0–6		30%6–6 (50%)+2.3
4University of Minnesota
Gophers 2		32.44
school +0.37, home +0.42		Clara Brown / Meara Cline
Maya Smith / Matthew Granstrom 0.32
Victor Nartovich / Madeline Jones		36%3–9 (25%)−1.4
5Marquette University
Golden Eagles		50.86
school −0.50		Colin Higgins / Jonathan Watzka 0.46
Etain Mckinney / Brennan Long
Brynn Mesec / Erik Floyd		10%0–12 (0%)−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Wisconsin Badgers6.879.8712–011.1≥+3.001.533%
3University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2.094.076–63.7+1.973.25%
2University of Minnesota Gophers 15.884.979–39.7−0.910.594%
4University of Minnesota Gophers 22.441.443–94.4−1.001.095%
5Marquette University Golden Eagles0.86-2.140–121.2≤−3.001.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Tom RorrerUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee1.193.166–63.7+1.973.25%
Dominique HamiltonUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee-0.071.906–63.7+1.973.25%
Alexander MckeeUniversity of Minnesota0.910.009–39.7−0.910.594%
Maya SmithUniversity of Minnesota0.32-0.673–94.4−1.001.095%
Victor NartovichUniversity of Minnesota-0.12-1.113–94.4−1.001.095%
Colin HigginsMarquette University0.46-2.540–121.2≤−3.001.9>99%
Brynn MesecMarquette University0.77-2.230–121.2≤−3.001.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
12University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersMarquette University Golden Eagles76%
13University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 166%
14University of Minnesota Gophers 2Marquette University Golden Eagles83%
15University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers99%
16University of Minnesota Gophers 1Marquette University Golden Eagles99%
17University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 241%upset
18University of Wisconsin BadgersMarquette University Golden Eagles100%
19University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers98%
110University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 299%
211University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
212University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersMarquette University Golden Eagles78%
213University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 172%
214University of Minnesota Gophers 2Marquette University Golden Eagles83%
215University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers99%
216University of Minnesota Gophers 1Marquette University Golden Eagles99%
217University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 242%upset
218University of Wisconsin BadgersMarquette University Golden Eagles100%
219University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers98%
220University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 299%
321University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
322University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersMarquette University Golden Eagles78%
323University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 174%
324University of Minnesota Gophers 2Marquette University Golden Eagles83%
325University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers99%
326University of Minnesota Gophers 1Marquette University Golden Eagles99%
327University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 242%upset
328University of Wisconsin BadgersMarquette University Golden Eagles100%
329University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers98%
330University of Wisconsin BadgersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 299%

Round 1

TeamRec.Badgers1Panthers2Eagles
University of Wisconsin Badgers4–0✕WWWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 14–4L✕W✕W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2–2LL✕LW
University of Minnesota Gophers 24–4L✕W✕W
Marquette University Golden Eagles0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.Badgers1Panthers2Eagles
University of Wisconsin Badgers4–0✕WWWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 14–4L✕W✕W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2–2LL✕LW
University of Minnesota Gophers 24–4L✕W✕W
Marquette University Golden Eagles0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.Badgers1Panthers2Eagles
University of Wisconsin Badgers4–0✕WWWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 14–4L✕W✕W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2–2LL✕LW
University of Minnesota Gophers 24–4L✕W✕W
Marquette University Golden Eagles0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-5-6 DNS
2 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 2-5-6
4 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
5 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4-5-6
6 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-3-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2-4-6
8 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
9 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
11 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
12 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
13 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-5-6
14 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-3-6 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-4-5
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4-5-6
16 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
17 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
19 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4-5-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
21 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-5-6
22 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
23 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-4-6
24 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-3-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 2-4-6
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 3-5-6
26 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
27 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-5-6 DNS
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
29 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4-5-6
30 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1022.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnesota — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnesota in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →