2017 McIntyre Team Race

HostStanford
Date02/25/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	15–2
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	15–2
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	10–7
4	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	7–10
5	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	6–11
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	6–11
7	Northwestern University	Wildcats	5–12
8	Oregon State University	Beavers	4–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,359 team race matches sailed before 2017-02-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 68 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.495 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.27 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 20% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	8.96 school +0.34	Keenan Chung / Robert Johnson 2.49 Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 2.78 Christopher Weis / Claire Hunt 3.10	75%	15–2 (88%)	+2.2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.01 school +0.53, home +0.23	Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.29 William Marshall / Cassie Obel 2.94 13–2 Will La Dow / Kathryn Booker 4.01 8–2 Jacob Rosenberg / Sarah Placek 6–0 Will La Dow / John Cannistraro 4.12 3–0	96%	15–2 (88%)	−1.4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	3	7.96 school −0.15	Michael Pacholski / Cole Brauer 2.60 Chuck Eaton / Michael Magnussen 3.01 7–6 Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 7–6 Jeremy Hitchcock / Danielle Ahir 2.27 3–1 Charles Eaton Iv / Michael Magnussen 2.73 3–1	58%	10–7 (59%)	+0.2
4	University of California at Berkeley Bears	7	6.11 school −0.24	Ian Markowitz / Megan Grosspietsch 1.56 Elizabeth Hansen / Eric Witte 2.00 Andrew Solomon / Ekaterina Goncharova 2.53	23%	7–10 (41%)	+3.1
5	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	6	6.50 school −0.12	Benjamin Rohr / Logan Allen 2.00 Nolan Van Dine / Flora Van Der Schoot Johannes Mcelvain / Kian Patrick 6–9 Johannes Mcelvain / Lucas Earley 0–2	37%	6–11 (35%)	−0.3
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	4	6.86 school +0.29	Ben Brough / Helen Payne 2.40 Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley 2.21 Joseph Lausten / Belle Lemoine 1.83	47%	6–11 (35%)	−2.1
7	Northwestern University Wildcats	5	6.75 school +0.12	Noah Rosenthal / Zachary Herron 1.89 Jacob Bruce / Katherine O'Donnell 1.80 5–8 Mark Davies / Michael Pauleen 3–9 Ryder Easterlin / Michael Pauleen 2–3 Ryder Easterlin / Katherine O'Donnell 0–4	43%	5–12 (29%)	−2.3
8	Oregon State University Beavers	8	5.76 school +0.16	Patrick (Drew) Ehlers / Natalie Shaw 1.94 3–8 Michael Levy / Quanah Green 2–7 Matthew Reynolds / Quanah Green 2–6 Andrew Wilkinson / Thomas Hope 1.48 2–4 Thomas Hope / Michael Levy 1–4 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1–3 Matthew Reynolds / Andrew Wilkinson 1–1 Andrew Wilkinson / Matthew Reynolds 1.66 0–2 Patrick (Drew) Ehlers / Andrew Wilkinson 2.22 0–2 Matthew Reynolds / Thomas Hope 0–2	20%	4–13 (24%)	+0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.96	10.79	15–2	12.8	+1.83	2.7	6%
4	University of California at Berkeley	6.11	7.30	7–10	3.9	+1.19	2.7	5%
8	Oregon State University	5.76	5.99	4–13	3.4	+0.23	0.1	46%
3	University of Hawaii	7.96	8.03	10–7	9.9	+0.07	0.0	60%
5	California Maritime Academy	6.50	6.38	6–11	6.3	−0.12	0.0	69%
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	6.86	6.20	6–11	8.0	−0.66	1.0	93%
7	Northwestern University	6.75	5.93	5–12	7.3	−0.82	1.3	95%
2	Stanford University	11.01	9.66	15–2	16.4	−1.34	1.6	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Keenan Chung	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.49	4.32	15–2	12.8	+1.83	2.7	6%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.78	4.61	15–2	12.8	+1.83	2.7	6%
Ian Markowitz	University of California at Berkeley	1.56	2.75	7–10	3.9	+1.19	2.7	5%
Elizabeth Hansen	University of California at Berkeley	2.00	3.20	7–10	3.9	+1.19	2.7	5%
Andrew Solomon	University of California at Berkeley	2.53	3.72	7–10	3.9	+1.19	2.7	5%
Andrew Wilkinson	Oregon State University	1.48	1.87	2–6	1.5	+0.39	0.1	46%
Jeremy Hitchcock	University of Hawaii	2.27	2.55	3–1	2.8	+0.28	0.0	64%
Charles Eaton Iv	University of Hawaii	2.73	3.01	3–1	2.8	+0.28	0.0	64%
Patrick (Drew) Ehlers	Oregon State University	1.94	2.18	3–10	2.5	+0.24	0.1	48%
Chuck Eaton	University of Hawaii	3.01	2.96	7–6	7.1	−0.05	0.0	69%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	1.80	1.72	5–8	5.2	−0.08	0.0	68%
Benjamin Rohr	California Maritime Academy	2.00	1.88	6–11	6.3	−0.12	0.0	69%
Ben Brough	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.40	1.74	6–11	8.0	−0.66	1.0	93%
Joseph Lausten	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.83	1.17	6–11	8.0	−0.66	1.0	93%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.29	1.94	15–2	16.4	−1.34	1.6	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	63%
1	2	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Oregon State University	74%
1	3	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
1	4	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
1	5	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	70%
1	6	California Maritime Academy	Northwestern University	33%	upset
1	7	University of California at Santa Barbara	Oregon State University	95%
1	8	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	99%
1	9	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	40%	upset
1	10	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	77%
1	11	Stanford University	Northwestern University	97%
1	12	Oregon State University	University of California at Berkeley	36%	upset
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	92%
1	14	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	97%
1	15	University of Hawaii	Oregon State University	94%
1	16	University of California at Berkeley	Northwestern University	27%	upset
1	17	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	90%
1	18	Oregon State University	California Maritime Academy	20%	upset
1	19	Northwestern University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	27%	upset
1	20	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	86%
1	21	Stanford University	Oregon State University	100%
1	22	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	96%
1	23	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	81%
1	24	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	68%
1	25	Northwestern University	Oregon State University	77%
1	26	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	96%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	89%
1	28	University of California at Berkeley	California Maritime Academy	47%	upset
2	29	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	69%
2	30	Oregon State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	37%	upset
2	31	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
2	32	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
2	33	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Hawaii	25%	upset
2	34	Northwestern University	California Maritime Academy	63%
2	35	University of California at Santa Barbara	Oregon State University	93%
2	36	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	99%
2	37	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	California Maritime Academy	57%
2	38	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	72%
2	39	Stanford University	Northwestern University	97%
2	40	University of California at Berkeley	Oregon State University	60%
2	41	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	92%
2	42	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	97%
2	43	University of Hawaii	Oregon State University	95%
2	44	University of California at Berkeley	Northwestern University	27%	upset
2	45	University of California at Santa Barbara	Stanford University	11%	upset
2	46	California Maritime Academy	Oregon State University	78%
2	47	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Northwestern University	72%
2	48	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	87%
2	49	Stanford University	Oregon State University	100%
2	50	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	96%
2	51	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	82%
2	52	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	33%	upset
2	53	Oregon State University	Northwestern University	26%	upset
2	54	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	95%
2	55	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	90%
2	56	University of California at Berkeley	California Maritime Academy	45%	upset
4	57	California Maritime Academy	Northwestern University	38%	upset
4	58	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Oregon State University	60%
4	59	Northwestern University	Oregon State University	74%
4	60	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	44%	upset
4	61	California Maritime Academy	Oregon State University	78%
4	62	Northwestern University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	28%	upset
4	63	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Barbara	29%	upset
4	64	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	99%
4	65	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
4	66	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	95%
4	67	University of California at Berkeley	University of Hawaii	12%	upset
4	68	University of California at Santa Barbara	Stanford University	11%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Rainbows	Bears	Keelhaulers	Mustang	Wildcats	Beavers
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Oregon State University Beavers	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Rainbows	Bears	Keelhaulers	Mustang	Wildcats	Beavers
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	3–4	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L
Northwestern University Wildcats	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Oregon State University Beavers	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Rainbows	Bears	Keelhaulers	Mustang	Wildcats	Beavers
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–1	✕	W	L	W	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–
University of Hawaii Rainbows	1–2	W	L	✕	L	–	–	–	–
University of California at Berkeley Bears	1–2	L	L	W	✕	–	–	–	–
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	✕	L	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	W	✕	W
Oregon State University Beavers	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
2	Mustang	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
4	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
5	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Mustang	2-5-6
6	Keelhaulers	2-3-5	def.	Wildcats	1-4-6
7	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
9	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Mustang	3-4-5
10	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
12	Beavers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
15	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
16	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
17	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
18	Beavers	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
19	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
20	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
22	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
23	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	1-5-6
24	Mustang	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
25	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Beavers	1-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
27	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
28	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Keelhaulers	1-4-6
29	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
30	Beavers	2-3-5	def.	Mustang	1-4-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
32	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
33	Mustang	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
34	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	1-5-6
35	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
37	Mustang	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
38	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
41	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
42	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustang	4-5-6
43	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
45	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
46	Keelhaulers	1-3-5	def.	Beavers	2-4-6
47	Mustang	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
48	Rainbows	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
49	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
50	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
51	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
52	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Mustang	2-4-5
53	Beavers	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
55	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
56	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	2-5-6
57	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
58	Mustang	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
59	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Beavers	2-4-6
60	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
61	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
62	Wildcats	1-3-4	def.	Mustang	2-5-6
63	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
65	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
67	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rainbows	2-3-6
68	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Christopher Weis '18 Keenan Chung '18 Sterling Henken '18	Claire Hunt '19 Robert Johnson '19 Elizabeth Moody '20
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Will La Dow '18 William Marshall '19	Sarah Placek '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 John Cannistraro '17 Kathryn Booker '19 Cassie Obel '19
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Charles Eaton Iv '17 Chuck Eaton '17 Jeremy Hitchcock '17 Michael Pacholski '19 Patrick Wilkinson '20	Michael Magnussen '18 Danielle Ahir '20 Cole Brauer '17
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Andrew Solomon '18 Elizabeth Hansen '19 Ian Markowitz '17	Ekaterina Goncharova '18 Eric Witte '17 Megan Grosspietsch '20
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Benjamin Rohr '19 Johannes Mcelvain '18 Nolan Van Dine '20	Logan Allen '19 Kian Patrick '20 Lucas Earley '19 Flora Van Der Schoot '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	Ben Brough '19 Joseph Lausten '18 Liam Hood '20	Helen Payne '19 Belle Lemoine '19 Alyson Crowley '20
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Mark Davies '20 Noah Rosenthal '18 Ryder Easterlin '20	Katherine O'Donnell '19 Michael Pauleen '18 Zachary Herron '18
Oregon State University	Beavers	Andrew Wilkinson '18 Matthew Reynolds '20 Michael Levy '19 Patrick (Drew) Ehlers '19 Thomas Hope '20	Matthew Reynolds '20 Thomas Hope '20 Quanah Green '18 Andrew Wilkinson '18 Natalie Shaw '20 Michael Levy '19

Conditions — 02/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.5 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1020.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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