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SAISA South Points #3

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 79
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 82
3 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 93
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 97
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 146
6 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 161
7 New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 226 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Florida University of Florida Gators A 8 6 5 2 2 1 6 1 31 Jack Famiglietti '18
Katie Freeley '19
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 A 7 7 2 9 1 3 5 2 36 Samuel Normington '18
Kimberly Kusminsky '19
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 B 4 2 7 7 8 8 2 4 42 Geoffrey St. John '19
Kathryn Ross '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 B 5 8 8 1 6 10 1 7 46 Benjamin Chafee '16 [1-8]
Sage Morgan '18 [1-6]
Dana Mclean '17 [7-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 3 1 OCS 3 4 7 8 6 47 Andrew Baird '18
Megan Hostetter '19
University of Florida University of Florida Gators B 1 4 9 11 9 4 7 3 48 Samuel Armington '18
Rachel Daye '18
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 12 10 1 8 5 6 3 5 50 Michael Sanandajian '18
Mandi Dickie '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 A 2 3 12 12 3 5 4 10 51 Matthew Peterson '18
Rebekah Woodburn '19
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 10 5 3 4 10 9 9 9 59 Stanley Carraway '19
No Show
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles B 9 13 6 5 7 11 10 12 73 Meghan Peltier '16 [1-8]
Beatriz Dunoyer De Segonzac '18 [1-4]
Caitlin Lazarus '19 [5-8]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 11 12 11 6 14 12 13 8 87 Matthew Martin '16
Kelsey Blue '19
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles A 6 11 10 10 12 14 12 13 88 Curtis Woodworth '17 [1-4]
Rafael Melendez '17 [5-8]
Rafael Melendez '17 [1-4]
Curtis Woodworth '17 [5-8]
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls A DNS 9 4 13 11 2 11 11 96 MRP Sophia Schultz '17
James Montgomery '17
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls B DNS 14 13 14 13 13 14 14 130 MRP Margaret Swerdloff '17
Cornell Lee '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (51 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 111223344
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 2221114141313
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators66554433
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33445566
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins44332211
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls55667788
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls7788991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 188776655
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons 299101011111212
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators131314141122
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles1010998877
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins1111121213131414
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls12121111101099
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1414131312121111

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1019.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at South Florida: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.29 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →