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SAISA South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 18 12 30
2 New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 16 19 35
3 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 17 18 35
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 25 14 39
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 20 33 53
6 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 30 30 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 3 4 2 2 3 2 16 Sophia Schultz '17
Abigail Oakes '15
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4 1 1 6 2 3 17 Bradford Cederberg '15
Amanda Smith '15
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 3 3 5 1 5 18 Joseph Bello '18
Megan Hostetter '19
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2 5 6 1 5 1 20 Giancarlo Falconi '16
Nick Gangemi '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 5 2 4 4 4 6 25 Allison Price '16
Hannah Knighton '17
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 6 6 5 3 6 4 30 Thomas Monson '14 [1-6]
Angela Skane '16 [1-4]
Eric Mueth '16 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 1 2 3 3 1 12 Michael Sanandajian '18
Morganne Morrison '15
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 3 1 2 2 2 14 Anna Palmer '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Natalie Butler '18 [3-4]
Victoria Caba '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 4 5 1 4 3 18 Samuel Normington '18
Aliki Fornier '17
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 3 2 3 5 1 5 19 Cornell Lee '16 [1-2, 5-6]
James Montgomery '17 [3-4]
Francisco Perez '17 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 6 5 4 6 5 4 30 Jeroen Poelstra '18
David Jones '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 6 6 4 6 6 33 Sarah Ranney '17 [1-2]
Geoffrey Calderone '18 [3-4]
Benjamin Kaminsky '17 [5-6]
Geoffrey Calderone '18 [1-2]
Benjamin Kaminsky '17 [3-4]
Sarah Ranney '17 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons113355
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators446622
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins224466
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes551133
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls335511
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls662244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons224466
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators551133
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins335511
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes662244
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls446622
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls113355

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1011.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Florida: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.68 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Florida, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →