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Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 16 17 33
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow White 32 26 58
3 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 40 21 61
4 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 32 34 66
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 39 27 66
6 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 33 53 86
7 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Hosei University 72 50 122
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 47 78 125
9 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 66 61 127
10 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 55 84 139
11 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 59 85 144
12 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 80 72 152
13 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 85 80 165
14 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 105 67 172
15 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 78 99 177
16 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 104 91 195
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 1 7 1 2 2 1 2 16 Charles Eaton Iv '17
Michael Magnussen '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow White 2 10 4 8 3 2 3 32 Jeremy Hitchcock '17
Danielle Ahir '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 6 2 7 1 4 8 32 Peter Wong '18
Mason Comerford '20
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 3 3 3 1 14 5 4 33 Louise Currie '18
Megan Zamzow '19
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 6 4 6 3 5 6 9 39 Connor Hughes '19
Farzana Mohamedali '20
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 8 2 8 5 7 3 7 40 Cameron Baxter '19 [1-4]
Kai Galli '18 [5-7]
Kelly Sojka '19 [1-4]
Jazlyne Rojas '17 [5-7]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 9 BKD 11 4 6 9 1 47 Grace Yakutis '20
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 7 11 5 10 8 8 6 55 Leah Ford '19
Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 10 1 10 6 9 13 10 59 Brian Maclean '18
Christian Parizea '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 5 5 9 9 12 15 11 66 Alex Demmler '19 [1-7]
Brennan Lund '17 [1-2]
Kaela Riha '19 [3-7]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Hosei University 14 14 12 13 4 10 5 72
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 11 8 14 14 10 7 14 78 Colin Bishop '20
Shawna Eggleston '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 12 13 7 11 13 11 13 80 Ryan Van Slyck '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ezekiel Ward '20 [3-4, 7]
Carter Erickson '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Kendall Kracke '20 [3-4, 7]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 13 12 13 12 11 12 12 85 Erika Barth '16 [1-7]
Chase Verstuyft '17 [1-4, 7]
Chieko Imai '20 [5-6]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 15 9 16 16 16 16 16 104 Andrew Clements '17
Kinsey Cohen '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 16 15 15 15 15 14 15 105 Danielle Erjavec '17
Ellen Gable '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 1 1 3 1 1 4 6 17 Michael Pacholski '19
Cole Brauer '17
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 5 2 6 4 2 1 1 21 Mathew Butler '19 [1-4]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [5-7]
Jessica Lawler '18 [1-4]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow White 2 5 2 5 5 2 5 26 Patrick Wilkinson '20
Megan Lucas '20
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 3 1 6 6 3 4 27 Hayden Potter '20
Joanna Garcia '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 6 4 4 2 4 12 2 34 Paul Chyz '18 [1-7]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [1-4]
Will Paulsen '19 [5-7]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Hosei University 3 11 14 9 3 7 3 50
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 7 7 5 7 15 5 7 53 Caitlin Schadt '18 [1-7]
Gianna Bailey '18 [1-4]
Annika Garrett '19 [5-7]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 11 15 8 3 9 6 9 61 Sunny Scarbrough '17 [1-5]
John Mcinerney '18 [6-7]
Courtney Pacheco '17 [1-5]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [6-7]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 10 6 9 10 8 16 8 67 Hayden Christensen '17
Madisson Thomas '17
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 12 10 11 8 12 8 11 72 Lena Captain '17
Grace Davidson '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 9 14 BKD BKD 13 10 10 78 Lauren Lopez '20
Natalie Millstein '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 16 9 13 14 7 9 12 80 Yan Rui Goheen '17 [1-7]
Cameron Khorsandi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Rachel Zhao '19 [3-4, 7]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 14 12 7 11 16 11 13 84 Sarah Macpherson '18
Marianne Simpson '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 8 8 12 15 14 13 15 85 Philip Tagatac '17 [1-7]
Lucas Erb '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Stacey Agustin '18 [3-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 13 13 15 12 10 14 14 91 Charles Winter '17
Justin Clements '19
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 15 16 10 16 11 15 16 99 Gillian Craig '20
Hayley Woods '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins1133557
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers2244668
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Hosei University1111131315151
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Black881010121214
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green991111131315
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine7799111113
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow White10101212141416
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1212141416162
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy13131515113
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters3355779
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins44668810
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons55779911
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6688101012
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes14141616224
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies151511335
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings161622446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins2244668
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers3355779
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Hosei University1212141416162
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Black991111131315
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green10101212141416
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine881010121214
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow White1111131315151
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans13131515113
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy14141616224
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters44668810
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins55779911
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons6688101012
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos7799111113
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes151511335
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies161622446
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Andrew Clements '17 Kinsey Cohen '17
Dolphins Charles Winter '17 Justin Clements '19
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Alex Demmler '19 [1-7] Brennan Lund '17 [1-2]
Kaela Riha '19 [3-7]
49ers Sunny Scarbrough '17 [1-5]
John Mcinerney '18 [6-7]		 Courtney Pacheco '17 [1-5]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [6-7]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Maclean '18 Christian Parizea '18
Anteaters Philip Tagatac '17 [1-7] Lucas Erb '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Stacey Agustin '18 [3-4]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Leah Ford '19 Kylie Sullivan '17
Bruins Sarah Macpherson '18 Marianne Simpson '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Erika Barth '16 [1-7] Chase Verstuyft '17 [1-4, 7]
Chieko Imai '20 [5-6]
Tritons Yan Rui Goheen '17 [1-7] Cameron Khorsandi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Rachel Zhao '19 [3-4, 7]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Danielle Erjavec '17 Ellen Gable '17
Gauchos Hayden Christensen '17 Madisson Thomas '17
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Cameron Baxter '19 [1-4]
Kai Galli '18 [5-7]		 Kelly Sojka '19 [1-4]
Jazlyne Rojas '17 [5-7]
Rainbow Black Mathew Butler '19 [1-4]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [5-7]		 Jessica Lawler '18 [1-4]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Charles Eaton Iv '17 Michael Magnussen '18
Rainbow Green Michael Pacholski '19 Cole Brauer '17
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Louise Currie '18 Megan Zamzow '19
Rainbow Wahine Caitlin Schadt '18 [1-7] Gianna Bailey '18 [1-4]
Annika Garrett '19 [5-7]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Jeremy Hitchcock '17 Danielle Ahir '20
Rainbow White Patrick Wilkinson '20 Megan Lucas '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Peter Wong '18 Mason Comerford '20
Trojans Paul Chyz '18 [1-7] Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [1-4]
Will Paulsen '19 [5-7]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Grace Yakutis '20 Melissa Schem '18
Women of Troy Lauren Lopez '20 Natalie Millstein '18
University of Victoria University of Victoria Colin Bishop '20 Shawna Eggleston '21
Vikes Gillian Craig '20 Hayley Woods '21
University of Washington University of Washington Connor Hughes '19 Farzana Mohamedali '20
Huskies Hayden Potter '20 Joanna Garcia '19
Western Washington University Western Washington University Ryan Van Slyck '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ezekiel Ward '20 [3-4, 7]		 Carter Erickson '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Kendall Kracke '20 [3-4, 7]
Vikings Lena Captain '17 Grace Davidson '17

Conditions — 01/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
18.3 kn
avg  ·  max 20.0 kn
Gusts to 37.1 kn
From NE (50°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.4 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 19 kn · E 20 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hawaii: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.31)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.30
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.31 means a rating gap counts about 27% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hawaii by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Hawaii, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →