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Cal Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,849 team race matches sailed before 2019-02-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 40 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.445 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.28 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 20% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs 1		27.01
school +0.45		Ben Brough / Grace Vandervort 2.44
Alyson Crowley / Maddie Roman 1.93
Liam Hood / Peyton Nienaber 2.17		67%8–2 (80%)+1.3
2University of Southern California
Trojans		36.91
school −0.50		Nicholas Stefanoni / Katie Mcallister 2.73 6–3
Will Paulsen / Lauren Lopez 2.21 5–3
Sarah Alexander / Sabrina Moreno 2.29 4–3
Grace Yakutis / Camille Infurna 2.49 6–0		65%7–3 (70%)+0.5
3California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		18.12
school +0.38		Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 2.53
Brock Paquin / Matthew Thomas 2.79
Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Hailey Thompson 2.38		87%7–3 (70%)−1.7
4University of California at Berkeley
Bears 1		46.43
school −0.19, home +0.41		Drake Hayes / Makena Cunningham Barkus 2.20
Ciara Dorsay / Olivia Macdonald 1.95
Elizabeth Hansen / Mackenzie Berwick 1.95		55%5–5 (50%)−0.5
5University of California at Berkeley
Bears 2		54.38
school −0.19, home +0.41		Nicolai Sponholtz / Gregory Reich 2.08
Vincent Todosiev / William Arnold
Luc Lamontagne / Lindsea Hayes		50%6–4 (60%)+1.0
6University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		64.35
school +0.11		Tristan Richmond / Olivia Beers 0.45
Jake Zieba / Aine Roonan 1.99
Joseph Politi / Samantha Obel 1.67		49%4–6 (40%)−0.9
7California State University Monterey Bay
Otters		81.64
school +0.17		Caila Devlin / Ethan Switzer
Jason Gronich / Clover Stubbert
Liam Patrick / Max Graves		10%2–8 (20%)+1.1
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs 2		72.27
school +0.45		Mitchell Carroll / Robyn Zulauf 0.14
Millan Chaudhary / Sebastien Danthinne
Kai Ponting / Corey Quillen 1.31		18%1–9 (10%)−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
7California State University Monterey Bay Otters1.642.802–80.9+1.150.923%
5University of California at Berkeley Bears 24.385.386–45.0+1.000.730%
1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 17.017.958–26.7+0.940.826%
2University of Southern California Trojans6.917.297–36.5+0.380.149%
4University of California at Berkeley Bears 16.436.055–55.5−0.380.181%
6University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4.353.534–64.9−0.820.592%
8Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 22.271.241–91.8−1.030.693%
3California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers8.126.867–38.7−1.271.798%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jason GronichCalifornia State University Monterey Bay-0.210.942–80.9+1.150.923%
Vincent TodosievUniversity of California at Berkeley1.282.296–45.0+1.000.730%
Luc LamontagneUniversity of California at Berkeley0.471.486–45.0+1.000.730%
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.443.388–26.7+0.940.826%
Alyson CrowleyCal Poly University S.L.O.1.932.878–26.7+0.940.826%
Elizabeth HansenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.951.575–55.5−0.380.181%
Mitchell CarrollCal Poly University S.L.O.0.14-0.891–91.8−1.030.693%
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy2.531.267–38.7−1.271.798%
Jacob Fisker-AndersenCalifornia Maritime Academy2.381.117–38.7−1.271.798%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 185%
12University of California at Berkeley Bears 2California State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
13Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of Southern California Trojans56%
14University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 291%
15University of California at Berkeley Bears 1California State University Monterey Bay Otters99%
16California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of Southern California Trojans79%
17Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 294%
18University of California at Berkeley Bears 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 299%
19University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
110California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 298%
111University of Southern California TrojansCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 299%
112Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1California State University Monterey Bay Otters100%
113University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos89%
114University of California at Berkeley Bears 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 289%
115California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 175%
116University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos94%
117California State University Monterey Bay OttersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 235%upset
118Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 164%
119University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 293%
120California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos98%
121Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 299%
122University of Southern California TrojansCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters99%
123University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 288%
124California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2100%
125Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos93%
126University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 164%
127California State University Monterey Bay OttersCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers0%upset
128University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos52%
429University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
430University of California at Berkeley Bears 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 289%
431University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 288%
432University of California at Berkeley Bears 2California State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
433Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2California State University Monterey Bay Otters67%
434University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos53%
435Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of Southern California Trojans54%
436University of California at Berkeley Bears 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers16%upset
437Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 163%
438University of Southern California TrojansCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers22%upset
439University of Southern California TrojansUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 164%
440California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 176%

Round 1

TeamRec.1TrojansKeelhaulers12GauchosOtters2
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 16–8✕LLWWWL✕
University of Southern California Trojans5–2W✕LWWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers6–1WW✕WWWLW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 17–7LLL✕✕WWL
University of California at Berkeley Bears 27–7LLL✕✕WWL
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–5LLLLL✕WL
California State University Monterey Bay Otters2–5WLWLLL✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 26–8✕LLWWWL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.1TrojansKeelhaulers12GauchosOtters2
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 13–3✕WLWWLW✕
University of Southern California Trojans2–1L✕WWW––L
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1–2WL✕LL––W
University of California at Berkeley Bears 14–2LLW✕✕WWL
University of California at Berkeley Bears 24–2LLW✕✕WWL
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–1W––LL✕WW
California State University Monterey Bay Otters0–3L––LLL✕L
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 23–3✕WLWWLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-4-6
2 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
3 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 4-5-6
5 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
6 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
7 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-4-5
8 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3-4-6
9 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
10 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
11 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3-5-6
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
13 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
14 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3-4-6
15 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 4-5-6
16 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
17 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 2-5-6
18 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-6
19 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-5-6
20 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
21 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 4-5-6
22 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
23 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
24 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 4-5-6
25 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-4-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-6
26 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-6
27 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
29 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3-5-6
31 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3-5-6
32 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2-3-5 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-4-6
33 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 2-3-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-5-6
34 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-5
35 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
36 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
37 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-4-6
38 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
39 University of Southern California Trojans 2-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-4-6
40 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1-4-6

Conditions — 02/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 14.4 kn
Gusts to 37.9 kn
From SSW (201°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1013.9 hPa Rain0.17 in

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →