University of California at Berkeley '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.05 (fleet 1.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–4 (60%) as crew 3–4 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 6–4 | 3–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 9–8 against 7.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.28 | 2.29 | 6–4 | 5.0 | +1.00 | 0.7 | 30% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | crew | 1.85 | 2.09 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Southern Area Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 1.69 |
| PCCSC Coed Dinghy Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.1 | 0.58 |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 2.38 |
| Gaucho Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Triton Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 0.88 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 1.72 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 1.45 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 1.90 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 2.05 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 division | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.4 | 1.26 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.4 | 1.26 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 24.0 | 0.85 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Crew | B | 6 | 2.8 | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.8 | 1.36 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.2 | 1.53 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.4 | 0.69 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
