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UCSD Open Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 14 12 26
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 33 35 68
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 52 25 77
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 44 44 88
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 72 44 116
6 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 60 97 157
7 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 85 107 192
8 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 107 94 201
9 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 111 121 232
10 Otters 1 Otters 1 Otters 1 137 MRP 100 MRP 237 MRP
11 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 87 150 237
12 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 128 114 242
13 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 119 128 247
14 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 138 115 253
15 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 132 122 254
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 162 144 306
17 Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 144 MRP 170 MRP 314 MRP
18 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 164 159 323
19 Otters 2 Otters 2 Otters 2 181 MRP 189 MRP 370 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 Sterling Henken '18
Elizabeth Moody '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 5 3 2 2 2 8 2 2 4 33 Sarah Alexander '19
James Patterson '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4 7 4 3 5 4 3 4 8 2 44 Maxwell Mckinney '19
Robert Johnson '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 12 8 1 5 4 7 2 6 4 3 52 Peter Wong '18
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 8 1 11 4 6 8 9 3 5 5 60 Nicolai Sponholtz '19
Alexandre Mutricy '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 10 2 6 12 3 5 12 7 9 6 72 Vincent Todosiev '19
Gina Canzona '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 5 3 5 10 11 12 13 8 10 8 85 Brian Maclean '18
Hali Dickson '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 7 10 8 8 12 9 6 11 7 9 87 Leah Ford '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Laura Roudebush '18 [5-8]
Grace Phillips '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 16 15 15 11 9 10 5 10 3 13 107 Liam Hood '20
Shane Alman '21
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 6 7 6 7 6 17 DNS DNS DNS 111 Alex Demmler '19
Dana Mcconnell '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 15 9 14 14 14 16 10 14 6 7 119 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Gerber '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Marianne Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 9 12 13 17 18 19 7 5 18 10 128 Thomas Rall '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Gabriel Marra '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Emilia Cloutman '20 [1-2]
Gillian Dean '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Adam Wild '18 [7-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 13 18 16 7 10 15 14 16 11 12 132 Julian Weiswasser '19
Kiara Broudy '18
Otters 1 Otters 1 Otters 1 6 11 10 9 16 17 4 17 12 15 137 MRP
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 DNF 13 9 15 13 13 11 12 16 16 138 Natalie Hopper '19
Robyn Gillum '18
Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 11 14 12 13 17 3 19 9 15 11 144 MRP
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 DNF DNF 19 DNF 8 11 16 DNF 14 14 162 Conor Kuzmack '21 [1-10]
Louisa Nickerson '20 [1-9]
Natalia Ionova '21 [10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 14 17 18 18 19 18 15 15 13 17 164 Daniel Vick '18 [1-10]
Jerod Flores '19 [1-6]
Nicholas Reed '21 [7-10]
Otters 2 Otters 2 Otters 2 17 16 17 16 15 14 18 13 17 18 181 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 12 Neil Stapleton '18
Claire Hunt '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 1 2 4 2 25 Paul Chyz '18
Clifford Lester '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 2 3 7 3 2 3 3 3 6 35 Will Paulsen '19 [1-6]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [7-10]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [1-6]
Will Paulsen '19 [7-10]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4 4 5 6 5 6 6 4 1 3 44 Rory Mcclish '18
Bailey Clark '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 7 5 4 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 44 Cole Fargo '18
Avery Burke '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 8 7 11 11 10 8 5 9 12 13 94 Eliot Briefer '21
Michael Johnson '21
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 10 6 13 9 8 12 11 6 10 12 97 Olivia Macdonald '19
Elizabeth Connors '18
Otters 1 Otters 1 Otters 1 11 12 9 5 6 4 9 10 7 7 100 MRP
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 12 13 16 10 16 9 10 7 6 8 107 Drake Baldwin '20 [1-10]
Christopher Nie '21 [1-6]
Grant Carson '20 [7-10]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 14 14 8 8 13 19 12 13 8 5 114 Megan Mcglothlin '21 [1-10]
Garrett Sobol '18 [1-5]
Collin M '19 [6-10]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 5 8 12 16 9 15 8 11 17 14 115 Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19
Christopher Steefel '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 6 10 7 4 7 7 DNS DNF DNS DNS 121 Julia Jaynes '19
Samantha Ho '21
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 9 9 14 15 14 14 7 8 16 16 122 Francine Brownell '19
Katherine Sonnenfeldt '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 16 17 10 12 11 10 14 16 13 9 128 Zoe Hessler '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Georgia Potter '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Kristopher Wong '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 DNF 18 17 13 12 11 16 15 11 11 144 Samuel Stewart '21
Jack Ellingson '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 DNF 15 6 19 19 16 18 18 9 10 150 Sarah Macpherson '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Miles Picus '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Susan Bean '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Amanda Tien '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 13 16 18 18 15 18 15 14 15 17 159 Jason Nideffer '20 [1-6]
Warren Ko '19 [7-10]
Irving Hui '19 [1-6]
Eleanore Mcguire-Wien '20 [7-10]
Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 15 11 19 17 17 17 13 12 14 15 170 MRP
Otters 2 Otters 2 Otters 2 DNF 19 15 14 18 13 17 17 18 18 189 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 123232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 224242424242424242424
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1104104104104104104104104104104
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 24444444444
DolphinsDolphins Dolphins9999999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers7777777777
Otters 1Otters 1 Otters 111111111111111111111
Otters 2Otters 2 Otters 2661661661661661661661661661661
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs15151515151515151515
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 138383838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 237373737373737373737
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters25252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 127272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 228282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 130303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 229292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 29999999999
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's33333333333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 123232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 224242424242424242424
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1104104104104104104104104104104
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 24444444444
DolphinsDolphins Dolphins9999999999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers7777777777
Otters 1Otters 1 Otters 111111111111111111111
Otters 2Otters 2 Otters 2661661661661661661661661661661
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs15151515151515151515
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 138383838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 237373737373737373737
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters25252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 127272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 228282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 130303030303030303030
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 229292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 29999999999
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's33333333333333333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Conor Kuzmack '21 [1-10] Louisa Nickerson '20 [1-9]
Natalia Ionova '21 [10]
Mustang 1 Samuel Stewart '21 Jack Ellingson '21
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Liam Hood '20 Shane Alman '21
Mustang 2 Eliot Briefer '21 Michael Johnson '21
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Alex Demmler '19 Dana Mcconnell '19
49ers Julia Jaynes '19 Samantha Ho '21
San Diego State University San Diego State University Thomas Rall '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Gabriel Marra '21 [3-4, 7-8]		 Emilia Cloutman '20 [1-2]
Gillian Dean '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Adam Wild '18 [7-8]
Aztecs Megan Mcglothlin '21 [1-10] Garrett Sobol '18 [1-5]
Collin M '19 [6-10]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Vincent Todosiev '19 Gina Canzona '19
Bears 1 Cole Fargo '18 Avery Burke '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Nicolai Sponholtz '19 Alexandre Mutricy '17
Bears 2 Olivia Macdonald '19 Elizabeth Connors '18
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Maclean '18 Hali Dickson '19
Anteaters Drake Baldwin '20 [1-10] Christopher Nie '21 [1-6]
Grant Carson '20 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Gerber '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Marianne Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bruins 1 Zoe Hessler '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-6, 9-10]		 Georgia Potter '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Kristopher Wong '18 [3-4, 9-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Leah Ford '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Laura Roudebush '18 [5-8]		 Grace Phillips '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Bruins 2 Sarah Macpherson '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Miles Picus '18 [3-4, 7-8]		 Susan Bean '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Amanda Tien '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Natalie Hopper '19 Robyn Gillum '18
Tritons 1 Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19 Christopher Steefel '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Daniel Vick '18 [1-10] Jerod Flores '19 [1-6]
Nicholas Reed '21 [7-10]
Tritons 2 Jason Nideffer '20 [1-6]
Warren Ko '19 [7-10]		 Irving Hui '19 [1-6]
Eleanore Mcguire-Wien '20 [7-10]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Sterling Henken '18 Elizabeth Moody '20
Gauchos 1 Neil Stapleton '18 Claire Hunt '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Maxwell Mckinney '19 Robert Johnson '19
Gauchos 2 Rory Mcclish '18 Bailey Clark '19
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Julian Weiswasser '19 Kiara Broudy '18
Banana Slug's Francine Brownell '19 Katherine Sonnenfeldt '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Sarah Alexander '19 James Patterson '20
Trojans 1 Will Paulsen '19 [1-6]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [7-10]		 Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [1-6]
Will Paulsen '19 [7-10]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Peter Wong '18 Melissa Schem '18
Trojans 2 Paul Chyz '18 Clifford Lester '19

Conditions — 10/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn · W 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →