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PCCSC Southern Area Designate

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 46 53 99
2 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 40 61 101
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 64 46 110
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 60 95 155
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 110 71 181
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 100 83 183
7 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 70 121 191
8 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 137 66 203
9 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 137 74 211
10 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 113 110 223
11 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 141 131 272
12 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 123 153 276
13 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 111 172 283
14 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 147 171 318
15 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 192 150 342
16 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 157 191 348
17 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 190 178 368
18 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 183 210 393
19 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 237 181 418
20 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 201 232 433
21 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 250 251 501
22 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 248 254 502
23 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 255 258 513
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4 1 2 5 4 6 2 6 4 1 3 2 40 Johannes Mcelvain '18
Hailey Thompson '22
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 3 1 3 2 1 11 3 13 2 1 4 46 Stephanie Houck '21
Ashton Borcherding '22
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 15 6 4 1 1 5 4 1 1 13 8 1 60 Ben Brough '19
Grace Vandervort '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 5 2 5 2 10 4 1 10 3 5 12 5 64 Quinn Wilson '21
Elizabeth Moody '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1 4 8 12 7 2 3 7 14 3 2 7 70 Kerri Luttrell '21
Olivia Beers '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 9 5 12 7 3 10 12 14 5 11 6 6 100 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 6 9 15 8 15 3 16 4 11 10 5 8 110 Sarah Alexander '19
Sabrina Moreno '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 13 20 6 6 6 8 5 8 2 12 11 14 111 Nicholas Dorn '22
Keiran Hadley '21
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 18 8 10 4 12 12 6 2 10 19 9 3 113 Evan Twigg-Smith '20
Makena Cunningham Barkus '22
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 16 7 14 9 5 11 8 15 19 6 4 9 123 James Melvin '19
Katherine Sonnenfeldt '20
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 3 10 11 16 16 14 13 12 9 9 7 17 137 Cameron Baxter '19
Samantha Obel '21
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 8 17 7 14 14 17 14 9 12 4 10 11 137 Alex Demmler '19
Samantha Ho '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 12 16 9 10 11 15 9 13 7 7 17 15 141 Joseph Politi '22
Aine Roonan '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 14 14 16 11 13 7 18 5 6 16 15 12 147 Abraham Dearden '20 [1-12]
Christopher Dinkel '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Megan Purl '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 17 12 3 17 8 9 7 11 16 18 21 18 157 Julia Jaynes '19
Joseph Presley '19
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 7 18 22 13 9 19 15 16 15 15 18 16 183 Andrew Clements '17
Cynthia Kerby '22
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 10 19 17 15 17 18 20 18 18 14 14 10 190 Drake Baldwin '20 [1-12]
Paulo Garcia Lopez '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Alexander Myers '22 [5-8]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 11 11 18 20 20 13 17 17 8 17 20 20 192 Gillian Dean '19 [1-10]
Adam Wild '20 [11-12]
Megan Mcglothlin '21 [1-10]
Emilia Cloutman '20 [11-12]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 21 13 13 19 19 16 10 23 17 21 16 13 201 Olivia Macdonald '19
Cameron Juybari '19
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 19 21 19 23 18 23 23 20 20 8 22 21 237 Jay Weber '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Kekoa Blair '22 [3-6, 11-12]
John Rzepczynski '21 [1-4, 7-12]
Jay Weber '20 [5-6]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 23 23 23 21 21 21 21 21 22 20 13 19 248 Laura Jones '19
Malakai Johnson '20
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 20 15 20 18 22 22 22 22 21 23 23 22 250 Carson Engle '20
Corbin Bendel '20
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 22 22 21 22 23 20 19 19 23 22 19 23 255 Antoine Kepczyk '22
Brianna Orrill '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 5 1 8 1 2 7 10 2 3 1 2 4 46 David Eastwood '22
Claire Hunt '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 2 2 3 1 1 7 7 8 3 10 7 53 Sophia Sole '21
Cassie Obel '19
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 6 5 5 5 10 5 9 1 6 7 1 61 Benjamin Rohr '19
Emi Stephanoff '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 6 5 6 7 3 2 8 11 4 9 3 2 66 Jake Zieba '22
Sophie Thompson '21
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 10 14 4 6 10 6 4 5 2 2 5 3 71 Will Paulsen '19 [1-10]
Diya Correa '22 [11-12]
Lauren Lopez '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Rachel Leipold '22 [7-8]
Kai Otsmaa '21 [11-12]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 8 3 3 10 6 11 3 1 16 4 1 8 74 Timothy Zimmermann '19
Connor Kobel '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 17 7 1 4 7 3 1 3 10 8 12 10 83 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19
Mary Jane Howland '22
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 7 10 7 12 4 5 6 4 12 13 9 6 95 Alyson Crowley '20
Mitchell Carroll '21
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 11 4 9 8 15 4 14 6 7 12 8 12 110 Vincent Todosiev '19
Paris Sato '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 15 15 12 9 12 14 2 8 9 7 13 5 121 Tristan Richmond '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Mary Toomey '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Mary Toomey '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Tristan Richmond '22 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 13 12 13 14 8 16 16 14 5 5 4 11 131 Jack Holbrook '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
George Kripac '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Pyper Atkin '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 9 11 14 18 18 13 11 10 14 17 6 9 150 Charlotte Hinman '22 [1-12]
Andrew Bittner '21 [1-8]
Gabriel Marra '21 [9-12]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 14 8 11 2 16 18 17 15 6 14 16 16 153 Dylan Yong '21
Marcus Leitner '22
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 12 9 18 16 9 12 15 21 13 10 17 19 171 Ian Marshall '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Nakul Gupta '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 17 10 11 14 8 18 12 18 19 21 21 172 Erika Barth '16 [1-8]
Canyon Breyer '20 [9-12]
Chieko Imai '20 [1-8]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 16 18 16 13 11 9 20 17 15 15 14 14 178 Parker Kulavic '22
Jessica Woodruff '21
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 4 16 22 20 13 19 13 18 11 16 11 18 181 Peter Collins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Bennett Dorsey '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Bennett Dorsey '22 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Daniel Gutierrez-Monge '22 [3-4, 7-10]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 18 13 15 15 17 15 9 13 20 21 22 13 191 Samantha Gray '19
Dana Mcconnell '19
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 20 19 17 17 19 20 12 23 19 11 18 15 210 Kevin Gates '27
Michael Schmitz '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 19 21 19 19 23 17 21 16 17 20 23 17 232 Matthew Broadley '22
Gregory Reich '21
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 23 22 21 22 20 23 19 19 23 22 15 22 251 Emelia Dolson '21
Josh Blumenthal '21
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 22 23 20 23 21 21 22 22 22 18 20 20 254 Olivia Feito '22
Declan Dury '22
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 21 20 23 21 22 22 23 20 21 23 19 23 258 Riley Glascoe '22
Katherine Pearson '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 1393939393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 2404040404040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2595959595959595959595959
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers102102102102102102102102102102102102
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs444444444444
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1999999999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2109109109109109109109109109109109109
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 1494949494949494949494949
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 2777777777777
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs151515151515151515151515
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos191919191919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373737373737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal383838383838383838383838
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters252525252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282282282282282282282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3321321321321321321321321321321321321
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4132132132132132132132132132132132132
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's343434343434343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 1393939393939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 2404040404040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2595959595959595959595959
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers102102102102102102102102102102102102
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs444444444444
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1999999999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2109109109109109109109109109109109109
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 1494949494949494949494949
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 2777777777777
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs151515151515151515151515
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos191919191919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373737373737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal383838383838383838383838
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters252525252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282282282282282282282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3321321321321321321321321321321321321
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4132132132132132132132132132132132132
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's343434343434343434343434
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Carson Engle '20 Corbin Bendel '20
Sun Devils 1 Emelia Dolson '21 Josh Blumenthal '21
Arizona State University Arizona State University Antoine Kepczyk '22 Brianna Orrill '21
Sun Devils 2 Riley Glascoe '22 Katherine Pearson '22
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Ben Brough '19 Grace Vandervort '21
Mustangs Alyson Crowley '20 Mitchell Carroll '21
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Johannes Mcelvain '18 Hailey Thompson '22
Keelhaulers Benjamin Rohr '19 Emi Stephanoff '21
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Andrew Clements '17 Cynthia Kerby '22
Dolphins 1 Kevin Gates '27 Michael Schmitz '22
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Laura Jones '19 Malakai Johnson '20
Dolphins 2 Olivia Feito '22 Declan Dury '22
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Alex Demmler '19 Samantha Ho '21
49ers 1 Timothy Zimmermann '19 Connor Kobel '19
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Julia Jaynes '19 Joseph Presley '19
49ers 2 Samantha Gray '19 Dana Mcconnell '19
San Diego State University San Diego State University Gillian Dean '19 [1-10]
Adam Wild '20 [11-12]		 Megan Mcglothlin '21 [1-10]
Emilia Cloutman '20 [11-12]
Aztecs Charlotte Hinman '22 [1-12] Andrew Bittner '21 [1-8]
Gabriel Marra '21 [9-12]
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Jay Weber '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Kekoa Blair '22 [3-6, 11-12]		 John Rzepczynski '21 [1-4, 7-12]
Jay Weber '20 [5-6]
Broncos Peter Collins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Bennett Dorsey '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Bennett Dorsey '22 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12]
Daniel Gutierrez-Monge '22 [3-4, 7-10]
Stanford University Stanford University Stephanie Houck '21 Ashton Borcherding '22
Cardinal Sophia Sole '21 Cassie Obel '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Evan Twigg-Smith '20 Makena Cunningham Barkus '22
Bears 1 Vincent Todosiev '19 Paris Sato '21
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Olivia Macdonald '19 Cameron Juybari '19
Bears 2 Matthew Broadley '22 Gregory Reich '21
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Drake Baldwin '20 [1-12] Paulo Garcia Lopez '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Alexander Myers '22 [5-8]
Anteaters Parker Kulavic '22 Jessica Woodruff '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Leah Ford '19 Hallie Muller '20
Bruins 1 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Abraham Dearden '20 [1-12] Christopher Dinkel '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Megan Purl '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Bruins 2 Ian Marshall '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Garcia '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Nakul Gupta '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Nicholas Dorn '22 Keiran Hadley '21
Tritons Erika Barth '16 [1-8]
Canyon Breyer '20 [9-12]		 Chieko Imai '20 [1-8]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Quinn Wilson '21 Elizabeth Moody '20
Gauchos 1 David Eastwood '22 Claire Hunt '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Kerri Luttrell '21 Olivia Beers '21
Gauchos 2 Tristan Richmond '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Mary Toomey '22 [3-4, 7-8]		 Mary Toomey '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Tristan Richmond '22 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Joseph Politi '22 Aine Roonan '21
Gauchos 3 Jack Holbrook '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
George Kripac '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Pyper Atkin '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Cameron Baxter '19 Samantha Obel '21
Gauchos 4 Jake Zieba '22 Sophie Thompson '21
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz James Melvin '19 Katherine Sonnenfeldt '20
Banana Slug's Dylan Yong '21 Marcus Leitner '22
University of Southern California University of Southern California Sarah Alexander '19 Sabrina Moreno '19
Trojans Will Paulsen '19 [1-10]
Diya Correa '22 [11-12]		 Lauren Lopez '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Rachel Leipold '22 [7-8]
Kai Otsmaa '21 [11-12]

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14 ± 0.05)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →