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Frosh-Soph Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 19 29 48
2 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 28 24 52
3 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 34 48 82
4 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4 39 60 99
5 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 62 45 107
6 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 76 37 113
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 68 54 122
8 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 85 71 156
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 55 104 159
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 87 74 161
11 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 82 80 162
12 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 80 86 166
13 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 82 90 172
14 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 97 78 175
15 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 118 117 235
16 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 132 128 260
17 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 122 150 272
18 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 134 150 284
19 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 150 144 294
20 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 157 139 296
21 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 152 146 298
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 2 1 2 1 6 5 1 1 19 Upamanyu Dutta '20
Sabrina Moreno '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 9 3 3 3 1 1 3 5 28 Nicolai Sponholtz '19
Sarah Paulsen '20
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 5 5 6 5 4 3 4 2 34 Alex Demmler '19
Kaela Riha '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4 1 2 11 4 3 6 2 10 39 Vincent Todosiev '19
Megan Grosspietsch '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 3 10 1 2 OCS 2 11 4 55 Ben Brough '19
Helen Payne '19
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 10 4 8 6 7 8 10 9 62 Jeremy Burke '20
Alexis Miller '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 6 7 4 OCS 10 4 12 3 68 Christina Gasparich '19
Jonathan Wilson '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 7 DNF 10 9 2 10 9 7 76 David Hopkins '19
Olivia Macdonald '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 13 9 12 11 5 14 5 11 80 Michael Gabassi '18
Manish Singh '19
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 4 12 5 7 16 17 7 14 82 Nick Aline '20
Thomas Harris '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 12 8 7 20 9 7 6 13 82 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-8]
Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabella Boshara '20 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8 14 14 10 11 9 13 6 85 Abraham Dearden '20 [1-8]
Kevin Wei '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Eric Du '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 11 6 9 8 12 11 8 OCS 87 Liam Hood '20
Neda Kasraee '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 15 11 15 13 8 12 15 8 97 Natalie Hopper '19 [1-8]
Canyon Breyer '20 [1-6]
Laura Furtado '18 [7-8]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 14 DNF 13 12 13 16 16 12 118 Jake Zarraonandia '19
Victor Ya '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 16 13 16 15 14 13 19 16 122 Annie Thompson '19 [1-3, 5-8]
John Lisenby '17 [4]
Sheyenn Temple '19 [1-3, 5-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 19 15 17 14 20 18 14 15 132 Warren Ko '19 [1-6]
Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19 [7-8]
Ryosuke Sakamoto '17 [1-6]
Douglas Williams '20 [7-8]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 17 16 20 17 15 15 17 17 134 Emily Guy '18 [1-6]
Stacey Agustin '18 [7-8]
Simone Andersen '17 [1-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 21 17 18 16 19 19 21 19 150 Sierra Madden '19
Jenna Rutledge '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 18 DNF 19 19 18 20 18 18 152 Cameron Khorsandi '17 [1-8]
Nathan Tessier '19 [1-6]
Kevin Hine '20 [7-8]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 20 18 21 18 17 21 20 OCS 157 Daniel Rust '19 [1-8]
Kyle Mcmanus '15 [1-2, 7-8]
Garrison Murphy '20 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1 2 2 1 5 10 2 1 24 Elizabeth Hansen '19
Gina Canzona '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 6 14 29 Mason Comerford '20
Clifford Lester '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 8 4 3 3 9 7 1 2 37 Whitney Ziesing '19
Kylie Fawcett '20
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 10 4 5 1 2 10 10 45 Andrew Klotz '20
Sarah Wilkes '20
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 6 3 7 8 7 3 5 9 48 Chad Farrell '20 [1-8]
Shyon Seyed-Emami '18 [1-3, 5-8]
Valentina Avincola '18 [4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 10 8 12 4 6 6 4 4 54 Lauren Lopez '20
Hunter Ramo '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4 13 7 11 6 3 11 3 6 60 Katey Hayes '20
Melissa Jaffe '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 12 6 5 9 12 13 9 5 71 Maddy Kuhn '20 [1-8]
Madeline Offerman '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricky Amadour '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 4 5 8 10 11 RAF 7 7 74 Shea Walker '20
Andrew Lozovoy '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 DNF 14 9 14 4 4 8 3 78 Erika Barth '16 [1-8]
Meagan Montalto '20 [1-4]
Chieko Imai '20 [5-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 7 11 10 7 16 8 13 8 80 Hallie Muller '20 [1-8]
Shannon Cavanaugh '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Arjun Boddu '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 9 9 13 13 8 12 11 11 86 Kartikye Mittal '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthieu Laurent '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Avery Burke '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Cameron Juybari '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 5 13 14 12 13 5 16 12 90 Sierra Apillanes '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Olivia Ayd '20 [5-6]
Elizabeth Noble '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 14 12 6 11 10 OCS 12 17 104 Dallas Butler '17
Nolan King '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 16 17 16 18 14 9 14 13 117 Stacey Agustin '18
Peter Van Voorhis Van Voorhis '18
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 15 16 15 19 15 15 18 15 128 Chase Verstuyft '17 [1-4]
Jacqueline Jabuka '20 [5-8]
Rachel Zhao '19 [1-4]
Robert Ketchum '19 [5-8]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 17 18 19 16 18 16 17 18 139 Bradley Patterson '19 [1-8]
Andrew Kinton '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Nick Aline '20 [3-4]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 11 15 17 20 21 18 21 21 144 Adityavardhan Vijay Shah '20
Anthony El-Sokkary '20
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 19 19 20 17 19 17 19 16 146 Jason Nideffer '20
Jerod Flores '19
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 18 DNF 18 21 17 14 20 20 150 Ivan Penaloza '18
Lucas Erb '20
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 20 20 DNS 15 20 19 15 19 150 Sebastian Guerra '20
Jesus Viramontes '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 13939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 24040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 18383838383838383
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 21212121212121212
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 31111111111111111
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 42424242424242424
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 144444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103103103103103
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 177777777
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 288888888
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 13838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2137137137137137137137137
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4848484848484848
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 12525252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2125125125125125125125125
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2281281281281281281281281
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1295295295295295295295295
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2129129129129129129129129
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3301301301301301301301301
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3434343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 13939393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 24040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 18383838383838383
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 21212121212121212
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 31111111111111111
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 42424242424242424
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 144444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103103103103103
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 177777777
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 288888888
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 13838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2137137137137137137137137
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4848484848484848
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 12525252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2125125125125125125125125
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2281281281281281281281281
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1295295295295295295295295
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2129129129129129129129129
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3301301301301301301301301
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3434343434343434
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Nick Aline '20 Thomas Harris '19
Sun Devils 1 Sierra Apillanes '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Olivia Ayd '20 [5-6]		 Elizabeth Noble '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Daniel Rust '19 [1-8] Kyle Mcmanus '15 [1-2, 7-8]
Garrison Murphy '20 [3-6]
Sun Devils 2 Bradley Patterson '19 [1-8] Andrew Kinton '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Nick Aline '20 [3-4]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Ben Brough '19 Helen Payne '19
Mustang 1 Dallas Butler '17 Nolan King '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Liam Hood '20 Neda Kasraee '18
Mustang 2 Shea Walker '20 Andrew Lozovoy '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Alex Demmler '19 Kaela Riha '19
49ers 1 Chad Farrell '20 [1-8] Shyon Seyed-Emami '18 [1-3, 5-8]
Valentina Avincola '18 [4]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Annie Thompson '19 [1-3, 5-8]
John Lisenby '17 [4]		 Sheyenn Temple '19 [1-3, 5-8]
49ers 2 Sebastian Guerra '20 Jesus Viramontes '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Nicolai Sponholtz '19 Sarah Paulsen '20
Bears 1 Elizabeth Hansen '19 Gina Canzona '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Michael Gabassi '18 Manish Singh '19
Bears 2 Kartikye Mittal '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthieu Laurent '17 [3-4, 7-8]		 Avery Burke '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Cameron Juybari '19 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley David Hopkins '19 Olivia Macdonald '19
Bears 3 Whitney Ziesing '19 Kylie Fawcett '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Vincent Todosiev '19 Megan Grosspietsch '20
Bears 4 Katey Hayes '20 Melissa Jaffe '20
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Sierra Madden '19 Jenna Rutledge '19
Aggies Adityavardhan Vijay Shah '20 Anthony El-Sokkary '20
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Emily Guy '18 [1-6]
Stacey Agustin '18 [7-8]		 Simone Andersen '17 [1-8]
Anteaters 1 Ivan Penaloza '18 Lucas Erb '20
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Jake Zarraonandia '19 Victor Ya '18
Anteaters 2 Stacey Agustin '18 Peter Van Voorhis Van Voorhis '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Abraham Dearden '20 [1-8] Kevin Wei '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Eric Du '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Bruins 1 Maddy Kuhn '20 [1-8] Madeline Offerman '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricky Amadour '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 [1-8] Mingyi Chen '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Isabella Boshara '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Bruins 2 Hallie Muller '20 [1-8] Shannon Cavanaugh '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Arjun Boddu '18 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Cameron Khorsandi '17 [1-8] Nathan Tessier '19 [1-6]
Kevin Hine '20 [7-8]
Tritons 1 Jason Nideffer '20 Jerod Flores '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Natalie Hopper '19 [1-8] Canyon Breyer '20 [1-6]
Laura Furtado '18 [7-8]
Tritons 2 Erika Barth '16 [1-8] Meagan Montalto '20 [1-4]
Chieko Imai '20 [5-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Warren Ko '19 [1-6]
Casey Bowers-Loeffler '19 [7-8]		 Ryosuke Sakamoto '17 [1-6]
Douglas Williams '20 [7-8]
Tritons 3 Chase Verstuyft '17 [1-4]
Jacqueline Jabuka '20 [5-8]		 Rachel Zhao '19 [1-4]
Robert Ketchum '19 [5-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Jeremy Burke '20 Alexis Miller '20
Banana Slugs Andrew Klotz '20 Sarah Wilkes '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Upamanyu Dutta '20 Sabrina Moreno '19
Trojans 1 Mason Comerford '20 Clifford Lester '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Christina Gasparich '19 Jonathan Wilson '20
Trojans 2 Lauren Lopez '20 Hunter Ramo '20

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1011.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · W 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →