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Gaucho Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,805 team race matches sailed before 2019-01-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 34 matches (97%) with a log-loss of 0.223 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.55 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		28.26
school +0.22		Johannes Mcelvain / Hailey Thompson 2.88
Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 2.44
Brock Paquin / Matthew Thomas		71%9–1 (90%)+1.9
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 1		19.27
school +0.13, home +0.42		Lucas Pierce / Elizabeth Moody 3.12
David Eastwood / Claire Hunt
Quinn Wilson / Sampson Reynolds		89%9–1 (90%)+0.1
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 2		37.91
school +0.13, home +0.42		Sidney Gathrid / Robert Johnson
Kerri Luttrell / Olivia Beers 2.01
Matt Long / Samantha Obel 5–2
Matt Long / Mary Toomey 1–2		65%6–4 (60%)−0.5
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		46.52
school +0.43		Ben Brough / Helen Payne 2.37
Josselyn Verutti / Maddie Roman 1.59 3–4
Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley 2.13 3–4
Kai Ponting / Alyson Crowley 1–2
Liam Hood / Maddie Roman 2.16 1–2		40%4–6 (40%)−0.0
5University of California at Berkeley
Bears		55.91
school −0.23		Drake Hayes / Josefina Ruggieri 2.23
Ciara Dorsay / Vincent Todosiev 1.85
Nicolai Sponholtz / Gregory Reich 1.93		40%3–4 (43%)+0.2
6University of Washington
Huskies		65.69
school −0.29		Connor Hughes / Blake Winner 2.00
Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.72
Karl Skeel / Avery Wolf 2.23 1–5
Karl Skeel / Rachel Cohen 2.21 1–0		37%2–5 (29%)−0.6
7University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos 3		74.68
school +0.13, home +0.42		Tristan Richmond / Jack Holbrook
Jake Zieba / Sophie Thompson
Joseph Politi / Catherine Reynolds 1–3
Madeline Kraus / Catherine Reynolds 1.97 0–3		21%1–6 (14%)−0.5
8University of California at Los Angeles
Bruins		83.61
school −0.50		Leah Ford / Hallie Muller 1.71
Abraham Dearden / Mary Jane Howland 1.45
Ian Marshall / Marianne Simpson		9%0–7 (0%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers8.2610.069–17.1+1.802.310%
5University of California at Berkeley Bears5.916.143–42.8+0.240.061%
2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 19.279.359–18.9+0.080.071%
4Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs6.526.504–64.0−0.020.068%
3University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 27.917.546–46.5−0.360.181%
7University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 34.684.041–61.5−0.650.288%
6University of Washington Huskies5.695.032–52.6−0.660.388%
8University of California at Los Angeles Bruins3.610.610–70.6≤−3.000.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy2.444.249–17.1+1.802.310%
Quinn WilsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.522.609–18.9+0.080.071%
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.372.354–64.0−0.020.068%
Matt LongUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.362.006–46.5−0.360.181%
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.582.226–46.5−0.360.181%
Kerri LuttrellUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.011.656–46.5−0.360.181%
Leah FordUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.71-1.290–70.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Abraham DeardenUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.45-1.550–70.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Ian MarshallUniversity of California at Los Angeles0.77-2.230–70.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Madeline KrausUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.97-1.030–30.5≤−3.000.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of Washington Huskies86%
12Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears68%
13California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 398%
14University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Los Angeles Bruins100%
15University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs75%
16California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of Washington Huskies93%
17University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins91%
18University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 399%
19California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs83%
110University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Los Angeles Bruins99%
111University of Washington HuskiesUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 377%
112University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Berkeley Bears96%
113California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins99%
114Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 384%
115University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Berkeley Bears88%
116University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of Washington Huskies97%
117University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3University of California at Los Angeles Bruins71%
118California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears91%
119Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of Washington Huskies72%
120University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 279%
121University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 371%
122University of Washington HuskiesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins88%
123California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 258%
124University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs96%
125University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of Washington Huskies57%
126University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 397%
127Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins93%
128University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers75%
129University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 279%
130California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs83%
131University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs96%
132California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 255%
133University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs81%
134California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 124%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.Keelhaulers12MustangsBearsHuskies3Bruins
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers9–1✕WWWWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 116–11L✕✕WLW✕W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 216–11L✕✕WLW✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs4–6LLL✕WWLW
University of California at Berkeley Bears3–4LWWL✕WWW
University of Washington Huskies2–5LLLLL✕LW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 316–11L✕✕WLW✕W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins0–7LLLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
2 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
3 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4-5-6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-4-6
6 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
7 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 4-5-6
9 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
10 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
11 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-5
12 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
13 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-4-5
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
16 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
17 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
18 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
19 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-4-6
20 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-5
21 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1-5-6
22 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-6
23 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-6
24 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
25 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 1-4-6
26 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 3-5-6
27 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
28 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
29 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 3-4-5
30 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
31 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
32 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 2-4-5
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
34 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 3-4-5

Conditions — 01/26/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1022.9 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.1 kn
avg  ·  max 3.1 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SE (125°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1022.9 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →