California State University Monterey Bay '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 (fleet 0.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–13 (13%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 2–13 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.73 | -2.27 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.89 | 2.05 | 2–8 | 0.9 | +1.15 | 0.9 | 23% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.8 | 0.22 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.5 | -0.70 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.0 | -1.03 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.8 | -0.06 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.4 | -0.64 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.9 | 1.61 |
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.8 | 0.92 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 18.2 | -0.36 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Liam Patrick |  Anacortes High School |
'18 |
| ISSA | Liam Patrick |  Oak Harbor High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
