Oak Harbor High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 (fleet 0.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–54 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 10–20 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 9–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 13–31 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.70 | 0.81 | 2–8 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | skipper | 0.62 | 2.16 | 6–8 | 3.2 | +1.54 | 2.6 | 5% |
| 2018-03-24 | Oak Harbor Team Race | skipper | 0.43 | 1.71 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.66 | -0.32 | 3–11 | 4.8 | −0.98 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Port Townsend Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.7 | -0.22 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Liam Patrick |  California State University Monterey Bay |
'22 |
| ISSA | Liam Patrick |  Anacortes High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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