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Jeremy McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 16–0
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 12–4
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 12–4
4 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 9–7
5 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 9–7
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5–11
7 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 5–11
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4–12
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,251 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 61 of 72 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.320 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal 1		29.78
school +0.48, home +0.35		Michelle Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall
Stephanie Houck / Camille White
Christina Sakellaris / Anaclare Sole 8–0
Hallie Schiffman / Anaclare Sole 8–0		85%16–0 (100%)+2.4
2Stanford University
Cardinal 2		19.78
school +0.48, home +0.35		Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Sammy Pickell 3.53
John Kirkpatrick / Patricia Gerli 2.69 7–1
Justin Lim / Laurel Foster 7–1
John Kirkpatrick / Taylor Kirkpatrick 2.82 5–3
Justin Lim / Mathew Hogan 5–3		85%12–4 (75%)−1.6
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		39.30David Eastwood / Samantha Obel 3.06 8–0
Lucas Pierce / Julia Roudebush 3.09 8–0
Sidney Gathrid / Elizabeth Moody 3.10 8–0
David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.12 4–4
Lucas Pierce / Sampson Reynolds 3.16 4–4
Sidney Gathrid / Joseph Politi 2.96 4–4		78%12–4 (75%)−0.5
4University of Hawaii
Rainbows		57.51Bastien Rasse / Devon Stapleton
Patrick Wilkinson / Frances Tarpey-Schwed 2.85
Owen Lahr / Hayden Lahr 4–6
Pelle Bergstrom / Chloe Long 5–1		52%9–7 (56%)+0.7
5California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		48.19
school +0.17		Storm Brown / Emi Stephanoff 2.68
Kyle Collins / Justin Zmina
Brock Paquin / Hailey Thompson 2.95		61%9–7 (56%)−0.8
6Northwestern University
Wildcats		75.92
school −0.25		Ryder Easterlin / Lillian Nemeth 2.51
Thomas Quinn / Eva Bambakidis
Marina Hutzler / Mitchell Moore 4–4
Nikolas Chambers / Mitchell Moore 1–7		30%5–11 (31%)+0.2
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		66.36
school +0.22		Josselyn Verutti / Corey Quillen 1.83 4–10
Kai Ponting / Peyton Nienaber 1.88 5–7
Liam Hood / Alyson Crowley 2.33 4–6
Liam Hood / Maddie Roman 2.37 1–5
Kai Ponting / Alyson Crowley 1.85 0–4
Alyson Crowley / Corey Quillen 2.17 1–1		36%5–11 (31%)−0.8
8University of California at Berkeley
Bears		84.73
school −0.12		Drake Hayes / Rosie Ward 2.48
Katey Hayes / Alex Ferry 1.00
Luc Lamontagne / Lindsea Hayes 1.26		14%4–12 (25%)+1.8
9Western Washington University
Vikings		94.25
school −0.30		Marijke Jorna / Harrison Saliba 1.56
Tyler Nolasco / Lauren Wittkopf
Kevin Hicks / Niko Twilla		9%0–16 (0%)−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University Cardinal 19.7812.7816–013.6≥+3.004.25%
8University of California at Berkeley Bears4.735.824–122.3+1.101.513%
4University of Hawaii Rainbows7.517.869–78.3+0.350.243%
6Northwestern University Wildcats5.926.035–114.8+0.110.058%
3University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos9.309.0312–412.5−0.270.178%
5California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers8.197.799–79.8−0.410.283%
7Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs6.365.915–115.8−0.450.384%
2Stanford University Cardinal 29.788.9112–413.6−0.871.095%
9Western Washington University Vikings4.251.250–161.5≤−3.002.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Marina HutzlerNorthwestern University1.293.324–42.4+2.022.310%
Katey HayesUniversity of California at Berkeley1.002.094–122.3+1.101.513%
Luc LamontagneUniversity of California at Berkeley1.262.354–122.3+1.101.513%
Owen LahrUniversity of Hawaii1.872.274–63.5+0.400.246%
Bastien RasseUniversity of Hawaii2.462.819–78.3+0.350.243%
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.102.8312–412.5−0.270.178%
Storm BrownCalifornia Maritime Academy2.682.279–79.8−0.410.283%
Kyle CollinsCalifornia Maritime Academy2.131.739–79.8−0.410.283%
Telis Athanasopoulos YogoStanford University3.532.6612–413.6−0.871.095%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford University Cardinal 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs97%
12Stanford University Cardinal 2Northwestern University Wildcats98%
13University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers79%
14University of Hawaii RainbowsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears90%
15Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsWestern Washington University Vikings89%
16Stanford University Cardinal 1Northwestern University Wildcats98%
17Stanford University Cardinal 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers83%
18University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears99%
19University of Hawaii RainbowsWestern Washington University Vikings96%
110Northwestern University WildcatsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs34%upset
111Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers84%
112Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
113University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows86%
114Northwestern University WildcatsWestern Washington University Vikings81%
115California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs86%
116Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
117Stanford University Cardinal 2University of Hawaii Rainbows89%
118University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosWestern Washington University Vikings99%
119California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersNorthwestern University Wildcats88%
120Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears83%
121Stanford University Cardinal 1University of Hawaii Rainbows89%
122Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos62%
123California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersWestern Washington University Vikings98%
124University of California at Berkeley BearsNorthwestern University Wildcats19%upset
125University of Hawaii RainbowsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs70%
126Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos62%
127Stanford University Cardinal 2Western Washington University Vikings100%
128California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears97%
129Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows26%upset
130University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs95%
131Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 250%upset
132University of California at Berkeley BearsWestern Washington University Vikings62%
133University of Hawaii RainbowsCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers38%upset
134University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosNorthwestern University Wildcats96%
135Stanford University Cardinal 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs96%
136Stanford University Cardinal 1Western Washington University Vikings100%
237Stanford University Cardinal 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs97%
238Stanford University Cardinal 2Northwestern University Wildcats98%
239University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers75%
240University of Hawaii RainbowsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears93%
241Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsWestern Washington University Vikings89%
242Stanford University Cardinal 1Northwestern University Wildcats98%
243California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersStanford University Cardinal 217%upset
244University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears99%
245University of Hawaii RainbowsWestern Washington University Vikings97%
246Northwestern University WildcatsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs36%upset
247Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers82%
248Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
249University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows82%
250Northwestern University WildcatsWestern Washington University Vikings82%
251California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs87%
252Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
253Stanford University Cardinal 2University of Hawaii Rainbows88%
254University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosWestern Washington University Vikings99%
255California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersNorthwestern University Wildcats89%
256Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears83%
257Stanford University Cardinal 1University of Hawaii Rainbows88%
258Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos64%
259California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersWestern Washington University Vikings98%
260University of California at Berkeley BearsNorthwestern University Wildcats20%upset
261University of Hawaii RainbowsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs74%
262Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos64%
263Stanford University Cardinal 2Western Washington University Vikings100%
264California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears97%
265University of Hawaii RainbowsNorthwestern University Wildcats77%
266University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs95%
267Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 249%upset
268University of California at Berkeley BearsWestern Washington University Vikings63%
269University of Hawaii RainbowsCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers40%upset
270University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosNorthwestern University Wildcats96%
271Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangsStanford University Cardinal 24%upset
272Stanford University Cardinal 1Western Washington University Vikings100%

Round 1

TeamRec.12GauchosRainbowsKeelhaulersWildcatsMustangsBearsVikings
Stanford University Cardinal 115–1✕✕WWWWWWW
Stanford University Cardinal 215–1✕✕WWWWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6–2LL✕WWWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows4–4LLL✕WLWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4–4LLLL✕WWWW
Northwestern University Wildcats3–5LLLWL✕WLW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs2–6LLLLLL✕WW
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–6LLLLLWL✕W
Western Washington University Vikings0–8LLLLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.12GauchosRainbowsKeelhaulersWildcatsMustangsBearsVikings
Stanford University Cardinal 113–3✕✕WWWWLWW
Stanford University Cardinal 213–3✕✕WWWWLWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6–2LL✕WWWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows5–3LLL✕WWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers5–3LLLL✕WWWW
Northwestern University Wildcats2–6LLLLL✕WLW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs3–5WWLLLL✕WW
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–6LLLLLWL✕W
Western Washington University Vikings0–8LLLLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
4 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
7 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
9 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
10 Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-4-6
11 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
14 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
15 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
17 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
18 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
19 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
20 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
21 Stanford University Cardinal 1 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
22 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
23 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
24 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-5-6
25 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
26 Stanford University Cardinal 1 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
27 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
28 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-5-6
29 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
30 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6 DNF
31 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 3-4-6
32 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-5
33 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
34 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
35 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
36 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
37 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
38 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
39 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
40 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-4-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-6
41 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
42 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
43 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 2-3-6
44 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
45 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
46 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
47 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
48 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
49 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
50 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
51 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
52 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
53 Stanford University Cardinal 2 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
54 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
55 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-6
56 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-5-6
57 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
58 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
59 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
60 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-5
61 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-4-5
62 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-5-6
63 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
64 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-6
65 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
66 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
67 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-3-6 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 2-4-5
68 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-5
69 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
70 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-5-6
71 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-5 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 2-4-6
72 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
SchoolTeam SkippersCrew
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 Christina Sakellaris '21
Hallie Schiffman '23
Michelle Lahrkamp '23
Stephanie Houck '21		 Anaclare Sole '23
Abigail Tindall '23
Camille White '22
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 John Kirkpatrick '22
Justin Lim '23
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22		 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20
Patricia Gerli '23
Mathew Hogan '21
Laurel Foster '22
Sammy Pickell '22
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos David Eastwood '22
Lucas Pierce '21
Sidney Gathrid '22		 Tristan Richmond '22
Samantha Obel '21
Sampson Reynolds '21
Julia Roudebush '23
Joseph Politi '22
Elizabeth Moody '20
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows Bastien Rasse '23
Owen Lahr '23
Patrick Wilkinson '20
Pelle Bergstrom '23		 Devon Stapleton '22
Hayden Lahr '22
Frances Tarpey-Schwed '23
Chloe Long '23
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers Brock Paquin '22
Kyle Collins '23
Storm Brown '20		 Hailey Thompson '22
Justin Zmina '23
Emi Stephanoff '21
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats Marina Hutzler '23
Nikolas Chambers '23
Ryder Easterlin '20
Thomas Quinn '22		 Mitchell Moore '21
Lillian Nemeth '22
Eva Bambakidis '22
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs Alyson Crowley '20
Josselyn Verutti '21
Kai Ponting '23
Liam Hood '20		 Corey Quillen '22
Peyton Nienaber '22
Alyson Crowley '20
Maddie Roman '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears Drake Hayes '21
Katey Hayes '20
Luc Lamontagne '22		 Rosie Ward '23
Alex Ferry '21
Lindsea Hayes '22
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings Kevin Hicks '24
Marijke Jorna '21
Tyler Nolasco '23		 Niko Twilla '21
Harrison Saliba '21
Lauren Wittkopf '22

Conditions — 02/22/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1016.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →