Northwestern University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 84.38 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.091 rating points from 166 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 (fleet 2.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–8 (20%) as crew 11–24 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 1–3 | 6–13 |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 5–11 |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 13–32 against 11.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | MCSA Open Team Race Championship | crew | 1.74 | 2.54 | 6–6 | 4.4 | +0.80 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2022-04-02 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.97 | 1.91 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | crew | 1.87 | -1.13 | 0–7 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2020-02-22 | Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | crew | 2.51 | 2.62 | 5–11 | 4.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.43 | 1.37 | 1–5 | 1.0 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.3 | 2.10 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.9 | 2.25 |
| MCSA Open Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship | Crew | A | 10 | 3.8 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 2.31 |
| Northwestern Fall Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.6 | 3.81 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 2.27 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.5 | 1.57 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.2 | 0.56 |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.0 | 2.68 |
| Cary-Price Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.4 | 2.56 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 4 | 13.0 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Qualifiers Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 2.90 |
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 14.4 | -3.15 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 13.2 | 1.54 |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 1.23 |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Crew | A | 5 | 2.2 | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | A | 4 | 11.5 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.4 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 0.81 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 2.73 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lillian Nemeth |  University of Chicago Laboratory Schools |
'18 |
| ISSA | Lillian Nemeth |  Lane Tech College Prep |
'18 |
| ISSA | Lillian Nemeth |  Lyons Township High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
