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MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 17 14 31
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 36 33 69
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 49 43 92
4 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 49 66 115
5 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 62 54 116
6 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 63 67 130
7 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 86 75 161
8 Maroons Maroons Maroons 84 82 166
9 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 94 106 200
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 17 Samuel Bartel '22 [1-8]
Jonathan Bailey '22 [9-12]
Lucas Quinn '23 [1-8]
Cristina Dombrowski '23 [9-11]
Kate Thickens '23 [12]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 8 2 3 3 2 4 3 3 2 2 36 Jenna Probst '22
Asha Baddi '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 5 5 3 2 2 4 6 6 2 4 7 49 Nikolas Chambers '23 [1-12]
Lillian Nemeth '22 [1-10]
Will Davies '22 [11-12]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 5 1 2 6 4 6 6 2 7 6 3 1 49 Tarkan Bolat '22
Molly Sheridan '25
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4 6 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 6 5 62 Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-12]
Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-10]
Collin Kemper '22 [11-12]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 7 4 6 7 7 4 8 3 2 4 5 6 63 Rachel Bartel '24
Conall Lynch '24
Maroons Maroons Maroons 9 7 4 9 9 7 7 7 4 5 7 9 84
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 6 9 9 8 6 8 3 9 9 7 9 3 86 Jenna Kozal '24 [1-12]
Michaela Maclean '23 [1-4, 9-10]
Frannie Lambie '23 [5-8, 11-12]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 8 8 7 4 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 94 Clara Brown '22
Erin Bouton '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 14 Christian Spencer '22 [1-12]
Allison Hansen '23 [1-10]
Sam Spencer '24 [11-12]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 2 2 3 1 2 2 4 1 6 2 3 33 Sherman Thompson '22 [1-12]
Lily Allen '23 [1-10]
Joe Serpa '24 [11-12]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 4 6 2 5 3 5 2 6 2 4 2 43 Thomas Quinn '22 [1-12]
Eva Bambakidis '22 [1-10]
Gabriel Abbott '23 [11-12]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 3 4 5 7 4 8 5 3 3 3 6 54 Joseph Gallagher '24 [1-12]
Joseph Thuente '24 [1-6, 9-12]
Carmela D’Antuono '24 [7-8]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 4 6 3 4 9 6 7 7 4 4 8 4 66 Michael Rivkin '22
Ben Spring '22
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 6 7 5 6 6 8 6 3 5 5 5 5 67 Greg Bittle '24
Meriah Kirschstein '24
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 8 5 7 7 3 7 4 6 7 7 7 7 75 Brittany Shabino '25
Gwen Busch '25
Maroons Maroons Maroons 7 8 9 8 4 5 3 8 8 8 6 8 82
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 106 John Cayen '24 [1-12]
Quinn Rowe '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Ethan Lin '24 [3-6, 9-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
MaroonsMaroons Maroons335577992244
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini446688113355
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles113355779922
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines557799224466
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers668811335577
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats224466881133
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish779922446688
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies881133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers992244668811

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
MaroonsMaroons Maroons446688113355
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini557799224466
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles224466881133
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines668811335577
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers779922446688
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats335577992244
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish881133557799
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies992244668811
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers113355779922
School / Team SkipperCrew
Marquette University Marquette University Jenna Kozal '24 [1-12] Michaela Maclean '23 [1-4, 9-10]
Frannie Lambie '23 [5-8, 11-12]
Golden Eagles Brittany Shabino '25 Gwen Busch '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Nikolas Chambers '23 [1-12] Lillian Nemeth '22 [1-10]
Will Davies '22 [11-12]
Wildcats Thomas Quinn '22 [1-12] Eva Bambakidis '22 [1-10]
Gabriel Abbott '23 [11-12]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Tarkan Bolat '22 Molly Sheridan '25
Illini Michael Rivkin '22 Ben Spring '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Jenna Probst '22 Asha Baddi '24
Wolverines Sherman Thompson '22 [1-12] Lily Allen '23 [1-10]
Joe Serpa '24 [11-12]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Clara Brown '22 Erin Bouton '22
Gophers John Cayen '24 [1-12] Quinn Rowe '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Ethan Lin '24 [3-6, 9-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Thomas Szymanski '22 [1-12] Kelsey Kennedy '22 [1-10]
Collin Kemper '22 [11-12]
Fighting Irish Joseph Gallagher '24 [1-12] Joseph Thuente '24 [1-6, 9-12]
Carmela D’Antuono '24 [7-8]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Rachel Bartel '24 Conall Lynch '24
Tommies Greg Bittle '24 Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Samuel Bartel '22 [1-8]
Jonathan Bailey '22 [9-12]		 Lucas Quinn '23 [1-8]
Cristina Dombrowski '23 [9-11]
Kate Thickens '23 [12]
Badgers Christian Spencer '22 [1-12] Allison Hansen '23 [1-10]
Sam Spencer '24 [11-12]

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1011.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn* · SE 14 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.23 means a rating gap counts about 20% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →