Northwestern Fall Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 11 11
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 17 17
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 7 26 26
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 11 26 26
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 31 31
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 10 45 45
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 56 56
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 59 59
9 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 62 62
10 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8 63 63
11 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 12 78 78
12 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 84 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 11 Lillian Nemeth '22
Leah Schulman '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 2 1 4 1 3 1 5 17 Will Davies '22
Annabel Edwards '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 7 3 3 2 4 5 8 1 26 Cooper Soderlund '22
Julia Neus '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 11 7 4 3 3 2 3 4 26 Marina Hutzler '23
Rachel Shapiro '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 4 5 5 6 4 4 3 31 Mitchell Moore '21
Eva Bambakidis '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 10 5 7 6 5 6 10 6 45 Matthew Beretta '23
Gabriel Abbott '23
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 8 6 9 7 8 6 12 56 No Show
No Show
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 6 9 8 9 9 11 7 59 Jordan Zax '21
Peter Spoerri '23
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 9 8 7 10 10 7 11 62 Jenna Spray '23 [1-4]
Dexter Gormley '24 [5-7]
Prabhav Jain '23 [1-4]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8 10 10 10 8 11 5 9 63 Jared Silver '25
Damian Franchere '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 7 9 10 78 Diego Torres '24
Joey David '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 12 8 84 Isaac Miller '24
Tara Chen '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 11111111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 105555555
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 113333333
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1212121212121212
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 22222222
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 33333333
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 41111111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 55555555
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 66666666
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 77777777
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 88888888
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 99999999

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From SE (143°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.35 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →