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Top-9 Open

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 2 2 4 1 1 4 14 Chris Kayda '23
Kate Gallagher '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 6 8 3 3 2 3 25 Ted Mcdonough '25
Joshua Pelletier '24
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 6 10 6 2 26 Justin Lim '23
Gwendolyn Donahue '24
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 3 5 1 7 5 5 26 Clay Myers '25
Etienne Quille '25
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 4 3 7 5 3 6 28 Jack Baldwin '26
Isabelle Mcnabb '26
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 12 4 5 4 4 1 30 Bastien Rasse '23
Kelsie Grant '23
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 5 10 9 2 7 7 40 Owen Lahr '23
Frances Tarpey-Schwed '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 9 6 11 11 11 10 58 Kai Ponting '23
Maura Darby '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 7 15 2 13 10 12 59 Nate Ingebritson '25
Jessica Stewart '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 14 7 8 9 13 9 60 Gideon Burnes Heath '23 [1-6]
Linnea Jackson '25 [1-5]
Teresa Dang '24 [6]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 8 12 15 6 8 16 65 Gabriel Reuter '23
Stella Potter '26
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 13 14 14 12 12 8 73 Kyle Farmer '26 [1-3]
Ryan Downey '25 [4-6]
Logan Chapman '26 [1-3]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 16 13 13 8 18 13 81 Zack Taylor '23 [1-6]
Teresa Dang '24 [1-5]
Linnea Jackson '25 [6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 17 18 10 17 9 11 82 Max Case '24
Mira Shupe '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 11 9 18 14 17 17 86 Wilton Lawton '26
Ethan Lisle '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 10 17 16 16 14 15 88 Noah Barton '23 [1-4, 6]
Tobie Bloom '23 [5]
Drake Coy '23 [1-4, 6]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs A 15 11 12 15 16 14 103 MRP George Soliman '24
Irene Abfalterer '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs B 18 16 17 18 15 18 122 MRP Blake Roberts '25
Artie Nazarov '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears444444
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers222222
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows999999
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal333333
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins555555
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons666666
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos777777
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears131313131313
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers111111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs101010101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows181818181818
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121212121212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins141414141414
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons151515151515
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos161616161616
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs171717171717

Conditions — 02/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1018.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn · N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →