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PCCSC South Designate Semis — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2023-W12). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,523 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Division A  13 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 Stanford University 12/12 484* 615 +131 99th → 99th 2.8 9% 1.2 / 1.9 494*
2 Grant Janov '25 University of California at Los Angeles 12/12 285* 391 +106 82nd → 96th 4.8 8% 2.6 / 4.9 288*
3 Ted Mcdonough '25 University of California at Santa Barbara 12/12 291* 278 -13 83rd → 81st 0.1 48% 4.4 / 4.8 290*
4 Noah Barton '23 University of California at San Diego 12/12 174* 249 +74 63rd → 76th 3.1 15% 5.3 / 7.3 176*
5 Morgana Manti '26 University of Southern California 12/12 226* 207 -20 72nd → 68th 0.2 61% 6.6 / 6.2 226*
6 Aragorn Crozier '24 University of Washington 12/12 194* 201 +7 66th → 68th 0.0 51% 6.8 / 6.8 186*
7 Kawika Tumilowicz '25 California Maritime Academy 12/12 172* 158 -14 62nd → 59th 0.1 52% 7.3 / 7.3 175*
8 Aidan Boylan '24 Arizona State University 12/12 156* 135 -20 58th → 53rd 0.3 65% 8.3 / 7.7 159*
8 Blake Roberts '25 University of California at Santa Cruz 12/12 131* 133 +1 52nd → 53rd 0.0 50% 8.3 / 8.3 131*
8 Dalton Lovett '25 Western Washington University 12/12 158* 103 -55 58th → 46th 1.9 64% 8.3 / 7.7 157*
11 Morgan Burton '23 San Diego State University 12/12 76* 55 -21 40th → 34th 0.2 69% 10.5 / 9.4 76*
12 Robert Bloomfield '26 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 12/12 103* 35 -67 46th → 30th 2.3 93% 10.8 / 8.9 106*
13 Victoria Chen '25 University of California at Berkeley 12/12 55* 93 +38 35th → 43rd 0.7 80% 11.3 / 9.8 59*

Division B  13 boats · 12 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Sophie Fisher '26 Stanford University 12/12 401* 433 +32 97th → 99th 0.4 21% 1.8 / 2.8 402*
2 David Alexander '23 University of California at Santa Barbara 12/12 322* 276 -46 88th → 81st 1.4 55% 4.1 / 4.1 315*
3 Gideon Burnes Heath '23 University of California at Los Angeles 12/12 273* 210 -63 80th → 69th 2.6 62% 5.4 / 5.1 269*
4 Kyle Farmer '26 California Maritime Academy 12/12 243* 246 +3 75th → 75th 0.0 47% 5.5 / 5.8 242*
5 Gabriel Reuter '23 University of California at San Diego 12/12 215* 216 +1 70th → 70th 0.0 52% 6.3 / 6.3 215*
6 Ryan Milne '26 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 12/12 161* 285 +124 59th → 82nd 6.6 28% 6.4 / 7.5 175*
7 Nathan Gerber '26 Western Washington University 12/12 125* 206 +81 51st → 68th 3.1 26% 7.2 / 8.3 140*
8 Marlo Bozza '25 University of Southern California 9/12 194* 216 +22 66th → 70th 0.2 61% 7.3 / 6.8 194*
8 Edward Ansart '24 University of Southern California 3/12 163* 187 +24 60th → 65th 0.1 69% 8.3 / 7.3 163*
9 Matt Grimsley '26 Arizona State University 12/12 159* 175 +16 59th → 63rd 0.1 56% 7.8 / 7.5 164*
10 George Soliman '24 University of California at Santa Cruz 8/12 148* 102 -46 56th → 46th 0.7 82% 9.6 / 7.9 147*
10 Ryan Martin '23 University of California at Santa Cruz 4/12 53* 170 +117 34th → 61st 2.2 15% 7.5 / 9.7 53*
11 Zackery Martin '23 University of Washington 7/12 170* 129 -41 61st → 52nd 0.6 65% 8.1 / 7.4 166*
11 Thomas Pentimonti '24 University of Washington 5/12 192* 65 -127 66th → 37th 2.7 >99% 11.8 / 6.8 185*
12 Fiona Wu '25 University of California at Berkeley 12/12 59* -10 -69 35th → 21st 0.8 99% 12.7 / 9.6 51*
13 Tegan Smith '24 San Diego State University 12/12 -49* -1 +48 13th → 22nd 0.4 97% 12.8 / 11.4 -45*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →