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McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 15–0
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 12–3
3 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 7–8
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6–9
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4–11
6 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,964 team race matches sailed before 2023-02-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 45 matches (91%) with a log-loss of 0.221 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal 1		111.37
school +0.43, home +0.38		Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.46
Vanessa Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall
Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.33		98%15–0 (100%)+0.3
2Stanford University
Cardinal 2		29.05
school +0.43, home +0.38		Chapman Petersen / Anaclare Sole
Jack Baldwin / Isabelle Mcnabb
Justin Lim / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.16		79%12–3 (80%)+0.1
3California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		46.01
school +0.11		Ryan Downey / Charles Bedford 1.87
Clay Myers / Conner Skewes 2.10
Kyle Farmer / Logan Chapman		44%7–8 (47%)+0.4
4University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		36.42
school −0.27		Chris Kayda / Kate Gallagher 2.94
Ted Mcdonough / Julia Roudebush 2.25
Daniel Erisman / Kaitlin Chan 1.39		50%6–9 (40%)−1.5
5University of California at Berkeley
Bears		54.39Nate Ingebritson / Jessica Stewart 1.68
Michael Mcculloch / Katherine Olsen 1.46
Wilton Lawton / Fiona Wu		20%4–11 (27%)+1.0
6University of California at Santa Cruz
Banana Slugs		63.58
school +0.15		George Soliman / Irene Abfalterer 1.25
Summer Drake / Devon Baker-Berry
Blake Roberts / Connor Fagan 1.11		9%1–14 (7%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University Cardinal 111.3714.3715–014.7≥+3.000.473%
5University of California at Berkeley Bears4.395.094–113.0+0.700.531%
3California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers6.016.277–86.6+0.260.155%
2Stanford University Cardinal 29.059.2312–311.9+0.180.075%
6University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3.583.211–141.3−0.370.179%
4University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6.425.456–97.5−0.971.195%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah FreemanStanford University3.336.3315–014.7≥+3.000.473%
Ryan DowneyCalifornia Maritime Academy1.872.137–86.6+0.260.155%
Kyle FarmerCalifornia Maritime Academy1.631.897–86.6+0.260.155%
Blake RobertsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz1.110.741–141.3−0.370.179%
Ted McdonoughUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.251.286–97.5−0.971.195%
Daniel ErismanUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.390.426–97.5−0.971.195%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers100%
12Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
13University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs96%
14Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
15California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs92%
16Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos94%
17Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
18University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos11%upset
19Stanford University Cardinal 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers96%
110University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs70%
111University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers61%
112Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 291%
113California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears83%
114Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
115Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos99%
216Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos99%
217University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs69%
218Stanford University Cardinal 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers96%
219University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears88%
220Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers100%
221Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
222California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos40%upset
223Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
224Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
225California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears84%
226Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 291%
227University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs94%
228Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
229University of California at Santa Cruz Banana SlugsCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers8%upset
230Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos93%
331University of California at Berkeley BearsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs69%
332Stanford University Cardinal 2California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers95%
333Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos99%
334Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Berkeley Bears99%
335Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
336California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos41%upset
337Stanford University Cardinal 1University of California at Berkeley Bears100%
338Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos93%
339California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs92%
340Stanford University Cardinal 1Stanford University Cardinal 291%
341University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs94%
342California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears84%
343Stanford University Cardinal 2University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs100%
344Stanford University Cardinal 1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers99%
345University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears88%

Round 1

TeamRec.12KeelhaulersGauchosBearsSlugs
Stanford University Cardinal 19–1✕✕WWWW
Stanford University Cardinal 29–1✕✕WWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2–3LL✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–3LLW✕LW
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–3LLLW✕W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.12KeelhaulersGauchosBearsSlugs
Stanford University Cardinal 19–1✕✕WWWW
Stanford University Cardinal 29–1✕✕WWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2–3LL✕WWL
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs1–4LLWLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.12KeelhaulersGauchosBearsSlugs
Stanford University Cardinal 19–1✕✕WWWW
Stanford University Cardinal 29–1✕✕WWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3–2LL✕WWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–4LLLL✕W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
5 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
7 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
8 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6 DNF
9 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
10 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-4-5
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 4-5-6
13 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
14 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
17 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-5
18 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
19 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
21 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
22 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-5
23 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
25 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-6
26 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 4-5-6
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
28 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
29 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1-3-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-4-5
30 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
31 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-5
32 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
33 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
34 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
35 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
36 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-6 DNF
37 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
38 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
39 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
40 Stanford University Cardinal 1 2-3-4 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-5-6
41 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
42 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
43 Stanford University Cardinal 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
44 Stanford University Cardinal 1 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6

Conditions — 02/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →