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McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15–0
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 12–3
3 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 8–7
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 5–10
5 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4–11
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.240 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.78
school +0.42, home +0.43		Thomas Sitzmann / Lauren Taylor
Lucas Woodworth / Shay Wood
Reade Decker / Alexis Young 9–0
Jack Baldwin / Alexis Young 1.51 6–0		99%15–0 (100%)+0.1
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		27.10
school −0.26		Jonathan Seawards / Michael Fineman
Jasper Reid / Avalon Everett
Henry Boeger / Joshua Pelletier		74%12–3 (80%)+0.9
3University of California at Berkeley
Bears		44.93
school +0.17		Katherine Olsen / Alyssa Cunningham Barkus 1.38
Wilton Lawton / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 1.35
Will Cornell / Viola Phillips Frank 1.81		39%8–7 (53%)+2.1
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		35.11
school +0.07		Max Case / Mira Shupe 1.68
Robert Bloomfield / Samuel Groom 1.48
Garrett Henderson / Annika Burns		43%5–10 (33%)−1.5
5University of California at Santa Cruz
Banana Slugs		54.26
school −0.26		Blake Roberts / Carter Anderson 1.45
Andrew Ring / Lucas Elliott 1.39
Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.58		26%4–11 (27%)+0.1
6Northwestern University
Wildcats		63.89Jake Weinstein / Herbert Single
Nicholas Chesemore / Owen Lubben 1.40
George Warfel / Jack Hartfelder		19%1–14 (7%)−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.7813.7815–014.9≥+3.000.191%
2University of California at Santa Barbara7.108.8612–311.1+1.771.038%
3University of California at Berkeley4.935.948–75.9+1.011.514%
5University of California at Santa Cruz4.264.314–113.9+0.050.060%
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.5.114.475–106.5−0.630.790%
6Northwestern University3.892.611–142.8−1.291.497%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jonathan SeawardsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.584.3512–311.1+1.771.038%
Katherine OlsenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.382.398–75.9+1.011.514%
Blake RobertsUniversity of California at Santa Cruz1.451.494–113.9+0.050.060%
Andrew RingUniversity of California at Santa Cruz1.391.444–113.9+0.050.060%
Nicholas ChesemoreNorthwestern University1.400.111–142.8−1.291.497%
George WarfelNorthwestern University0.37-0.921–142.8−1.291.497%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.Northwestern University81%
12Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
13University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Cruz93%
14University of California at BerkeleyCal Poly University S.L.O.45%upset
15University of California at Santa CruzNorthwestern University63%
16Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara99%
17University of California at Santa CruzCal Poly University S.L.O.31%upset
18University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley89%
19Stanford UniversityNorthwestern University100%
110University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Berkeley34%upset
111University of California at Santa BarbaraNorthwestern University96%
112Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
113University of California at BerkeleyNorthwestern University74%
114Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Cruz99%
115University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.88%
216Cal Poly University S.L.O.Northwestern University77%
217Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
218University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Cruz94%
219University of California at BerkeleyCal Poly University S.L.O.46%upset
220Northwestern UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Cruz41%upset
221Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara99%
222Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Santa Cruz70%
223University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley90%
224Stanford UniversityNorthwestern University100%
225University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Santa Cruz67%
226University of California at Santa BarbaraNorthwestern University96%
227Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
228University of California at BerkeleyNorthwestern University73%
229Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Cruz99%
230University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.88%
331Cal Poly University S.L.O.Northwestern University76%
332Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
333University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Cruz95%
334University of California at BerkeleyCal Poly University S.L.O.46%upset
335University of California at Santa CruzNorthwestern University57%
336Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara99%
337Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Santa Cruz70%
338University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley90%
339Stanford UniversityNorthwestern University100%
340University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Santa Cruz67%
341University of California at Santa BarbaraNorthwestern University96%
342Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
343University of California at BerkeleyNorthwestern University72%
344Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Cruz99%
345University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.89%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosBearsMustangsSlugsWildcats
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4–1L✕WWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–3LL✕WLW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–4LLL✕LW
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3–2LLWW✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosBearsMustangsSlugsWildcats
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4–1L✕WWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears3–2LL✕WWW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs0–5LLLL✕L
Northwestern University Wildcats1–4LLLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosBearsMustangsSlugsWildcats
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4–1L✕WWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears3–2LL✕WWW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs2–3LLL✕WW
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs1–4LLLL✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-5
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
4 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
7 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
10 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1-3-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-5
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
13 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6 DNF
14 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
15 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
17 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
18 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
19 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
20 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-5
21 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-5-6
22 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-6 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2-4-5
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
25 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
26 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
27 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-4-6
28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6
29 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
30 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
31 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
32 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-5
34 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
35 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-5-6
36 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
37 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-5-6
38 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
39 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
40 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3-4-6
41 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
42 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
43 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-5-6
44 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4-5-6
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/02/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From SW (226°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1011.2 hPa Rain0.18 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →