University of California at Santa Barbara '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (fleet 3.46) | 124 of 328 | −0.00 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 56–28 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 20–12 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 9–10 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 27–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (84 matches) the record is 56–28 against 57.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.97 | 2.50 | 7–7 | 8.0 | −0.47 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 3.20 | 13–5 | 12.5 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2025-04-12 | PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.15 | 1.99 | 9–10 | 12.7 | −1.16 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2024-04-13 | Carter Ford Open PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.91 | 4.90 | 15–3 | 13.0 | +1.99 | 2.4 | 10% |
| 2024-03-02 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 4.35 | 12–3 | 11.1 | +1.77 | 1.0 | 38% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
