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SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 1 3 2 4 5 3 1 2 1 3 4 1 6 1 2 8 49 Thomas Sitzmann '27 [1-9]
Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 [10-18]
Gwendolyn Donahue '24 [1-9]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 3 2 3 1 3 1 4 6 5 1 7 4 2 12 2 2 8 4 70 Erik Anderson '26
Amanda Turner '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 7 7 2 8 8 2 3 2 3 5 3 7 3 4 3 5 1 1 74 Henry Boeger '25
Joshua Pelletier '24
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 4 8 5 1 9 10 1 2 4 2 2 1 8 7 3 3 6 78 Reade Decker '27
Alexis Young '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 10 3 4 12 4 6 1 4 8 17 8 8 6 10 4 4 7 2 118 Jonathan Seawards '26 [1-9, 13-18]
Jasper Reid '25 [10-12]
Kate Gallagher '25 [1-4]
Michael Fineman '25 [5-18]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 6 8 5 6 7 5 8 9 4 11 5 13 8 6 5 9 5 7 127 Morgana Manti '26 [1-10]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [11-18]
Jan Matteo Bassi '27 [1-10]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 5 5 10 2 13 14 6 7 6 10 12 10 5 2 8 7 4 3 129 Trey Summers '24 [1-12]
Everett Mcavoy '26 [13-18]
Stella Taherian '27 [1-3, 7-10]
Everett Mcavoy '26 [4-6, 11-12]
Trey Summers '24 [13-18]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 9 6 7 7 9 3 7 10 7 7 11 5 11 14 1 8 6 15 143 Benjamin Stone '27
Jaya Wirth '27
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 4 9 9 14 16 12 2 5 14 9 4 1 9 5 16 13 10 11 163 Nicholas Mueller '27
Jaden Lobbia '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 16 10 11 13 14 8 11 8 12 3 10 6 10 3 9 10 18 10 182 Luke Harris '27 [1-18]
Ava Bergan '27 [1-2, 10-17]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [3-9]
Edward Ansart '24 [18]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 14 12 6 9 10 7 12 15 9 16 17 9 7 9 11 6 12 9 190 Garrett Henderson '27
Annika Burns '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 8 16 16 10 6 13 17 17 16 13 13 16 17 7 10 12 13 5 225 Owen Thomas '27 [1-18]
Stephanie Seto '27 [1-5, 17-18]
Grace Smith '24 [6-9]
Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [10-16]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils A 17 14 14 4 11 10 13 12 15 6 9 11 12 16 17 17 15 13 226 Aidan Boylan '24
Noah Lovelace '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 13 11 13 15 12 15 16 14 10 12 6 14 15 11 14 14 9 17 231 Robert Bloomfield '26
Samuel Groom '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 12 15 17 17 5 17 9 16 17 8 18 12 13 15 18 16 11 12 248 Wilton Lawton '26 [1-18]
Tessa Greene '26 [1-9]
Emerson Marquez '27 [10-18]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 11 13 15 16 17 16 14 13 13 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 14 14 249 Sam Jennings '27
Mateo Krok '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 15 18 12 11 18 11 15 11 11 DNS 15 17 16 18 13 18 16 16 270 Victoria Chen '25 [1-9]
Ethan Lisle '25 [10-18]
Fiona Wu '25 [1-9, 16-18]
Tessa Greene '26 [10-15]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils B 18 17 18 18 15 18 18 18 18 15 16 18 18 17 15 15 17 18 307 Mitchell Powers '25
Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils111111111111111111
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears555555555555555555
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers333333333333333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs222222222222222222
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows777777777777777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans888888888888888888
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal444444444444444444
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos666666666666666666
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies999999999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils101010101010101010101010101010101010
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears141414141414141414141414141414141414
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers121212121212121212121212121212121212
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs111111111111111111111111111111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows161616161616161616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans171717171717171717171717171717171717
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal131313131313131313131313131313131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos151515151515151515151515151515151515
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies181818181818181818181818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Aidan Boylan '24 Noah Lovelace '25
Sun Devils Mitchell Powers '25 Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Robert Bloomfield '26 Samuel Groom '24
Mustangs Garrett Henderson '27 Annika Burns '27
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Nicholas Mueller '27 Jaden Lobbia '27
Keelhaulers Sam Jennings '27 Mateo Krok '27
Stanford University Stanford University Thomas Sitzmann '27 [1-9]
Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 [10-18]		 Gwendolyn Donahue '24 [1-9]
Cardinal Reade Decker '27 Alexis Young '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Wilton Lawton '26 [1-18] Tessa Greene '26 [1-9]
Emerson Marquez '27 [10-18]
Bears Victoria Chen '25 [1-9]
Ethan Lisle '25 [10-18]		 Fiona Wu '25 [1-9, 16-18]
Tessa Greene '26 [10-15]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Jonathan Seawards '26 [1-9, 13-18]
Jasper Reid '25 [10-12]		 Kate Gallagher '25 [1-4]
Michael Fineman '25 [5-18]
Gauchos Henry Boeger '25 Joshua Pelletier '24
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Erik Anderson '26 Amanda Turner '27
Rainbows Trey Summers '24 [1-12]
Everett Mcavoy '26 [13-18]		 Stella Taherian '27 [1-3, 7-10]
Everett Mcavoy '26 [4-6, 11-12]
Trey Summers '24 [13-18]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Morgana Manti '26 [1-10]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [11-18]		 Jan Matteo Bassi '27 [1-10]
Trojans Luke Harris '27 [1-18] Ava Bergan '27 [1-2, 10-17]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [3-9]
Edward Ansart '24 [18]
University of Washington University of Washington Benjamin Stone '27 Jaya Wirth '27
Huskies Owen Thomas '27 [1-18] Stephanie Seto '27 [1-5, 17-18]
Grace Smith '24 [6-9]
Tillie Jane Leroy '27 [10-16]

Conditions — 02/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From SSE (160°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.53 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn · S 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →