Carter Ford Open PCCSC Team Race Championship

HostStanford
Date04/13/2024
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–0
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	15–3
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	10–8
4	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	9–9
5	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	6–12
6	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	4–14
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,326 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 63 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.270 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.18 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 64% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.66 school +0.29, home +0.40	Hannah Freeman / Sophie Fisher 3.64 Lucas Woodworth / Alexis Young 3.46 Reade Decker / Ellie Harned 3.84	99%	18–0 (100%)	+0.1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	7.69 school −0.23	Henry Boeger / Joshua Pelletier 2.61 Jonathan Seawards / Michael Fineman 2.91 Jasper Reid / Lekha Sapers 2.30 9–3 Jasper Reid / Avalon Everett 2.28 6–0	72%	15–3 (83%)	+2.0
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	4	6.46 school −0.24	Martha Schuessler / Kees Horn 1.69 Erik Anderson / Amanda Turner 2.85 4–5 Everett Mcavoy / Sophia Shaeffer 4–5 Erik Anderson / Stella Taherian 2.95 6–3 Everett Mcavoy / Peyton Lieser 6–3	54%	10–8 (56%)	+0.3
4	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3	7.05 school +0.19	Clay Myers / Etienne Quille 2.43 Ryan Downey / Charles Bedford 2.00 Nicholas Mueller / Mateo Krok 2.23	63%	9–9 (50%)	−2.4
5	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	5	4.71 school −0.30	Carter Anderson / Hunter Holguin Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.66 George Soliman / Vienna Lopez 1.47	24%	6–12 (33%)	+1.6
6	University of California at Berkeley Bears	7	4.30 school +0.14	Will Cornell / Emerson Marquez 1.80 Katherine Olsen / Zoe Flemate 1.45 Victoria Chen / Fiona Wu 0.72	18%	4–14 (22%)	+0.8
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	6	4.37	Max Case / Mira Shupe 1.70 Robert Bloomfield / Griffin Vernon 1.36 Samuel Groom / Claire Wiley 1.16	19%	1–17 (6%)	−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.66	14.66	18–0	17.9	≥+3.00	0.1	90%
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	7.69	9.68	15–3	13.0	+1.99	2.4	10%
5	University of California at Santa Cruz	4.71	5.41	6–12	4.4	+0.70	0.8	22%
6	University of California at Berkeley	4.30	4.66	4–14	3.2	+0.35	0.2	42%
3	University of Hawaii	6.46	6.61	10–8	9.7	+0.15	0.0	55%
4	California Maritime Academy	7.05	5.98	9–9	11.4	−1.07	1.9	98%
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	4.37	2.72	1–17	3.4	−1.65	2.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.64	6.64	18–0	17.9	≥+3.00	0.1	90%
Jonathan Seawards	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.91	4.90	15–3	13.0	+1.99	2.4	10%
Katherine Olsen	University of California at Berkeley	1.45	1.81	4–14	3.2	+0.35	0.2	42%
Victoria Chen	University of California at Berkeley	0.72	1.08	4–14	3.2	+0.35	0.2	42%
Ryan Downey	California Maritime Academy	2.00	0.93	9–9	11.4	−1.07	1.9	98%
Samuel Groom	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.16	-0.49	1–17	3.4	−1.65	2.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	2	California Maritime Academy	University of Hawaii	65%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	97%
1	4	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
1	5	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	90%
1	6	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	66%
1	7	University of California at Santa Cruz	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	59%
1	8	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
1	9	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	97%
1	10	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
1	11	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	86%
1	12	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
1	13	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	48%	upset
1	14	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	91%
1	15	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	77%
1	16	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	17	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	94%
1	18	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	95%
1	19	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	89%
1	20	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
1	21	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Berkeley	60%
2	22	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	89%
2	23	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
2	24	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	97%
2	25	University of California at Santa Cruz	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	58%
2	26	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	35%	upset
2	27	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
2	28	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	95%
2	29	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	California Maritime Academy	6%	upset
2	30	University of California at Berkeley	University of Hawaii	10%	upset
2	31	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
2	32	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	91%
2	33	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	48%	upset
2	34	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	77%
2	35	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
2	36	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	94%
2	37	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
2	38	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
2	39	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Berkeley	60%
2	40	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	65%
2	41	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
2	42	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	85%
3	43	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	65%
3	44	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
3	45	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	85%
3	46	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	97%
3	47	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	99%
3	48	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	89%
3	49	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Berkeley	60%
3	50	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
3	51	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	35%	upset
3	52	University of California at Santa Cruz	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	58%
3	53	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
3	54	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	77%
3	55	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	91%
3	56	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	49%	upset
3	57	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
3	58	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	95%
3	59	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
3	60	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	90%
3	61	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
3	62	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
3	63	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	94%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Slugs	Bears	Mustangs
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	3–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Slugs	Bears	Mustangs
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	3–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	1–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Gauchos	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Slugs	Bears	Mustangs
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
2	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
3	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
5	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
6	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
7	Banana Slugs	2-3-5	def.	Mustangs	1-4-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
9	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
10	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
11	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	2-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
13	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
14	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
15	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
17	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
18	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
19	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
20	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
21	Banana Slugs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
22	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
23	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
24	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
25	Banana Slugs	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
26	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
28	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
29	Mustangs	1-3-6	def.	Keelhaulers	2-4-5
30	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rainbows	2-4-5
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
32	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
34	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
35	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
36	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
37	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
38	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
39	Banana Slugs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
40	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
42	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
43	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
45	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
46	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
48	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
49	Banana Slugs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
51	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
52	Banana Slugs	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
53	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
54	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
55	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
56	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Mustangs	2-3-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
58	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
59	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
60	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
61	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
62	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
63	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Lucas Woodworth '27 Reade Decker '27	Sophie Fisher '26 Alexis Young '27 Ellie Harned '26
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Henry Boeger '25 Jasper Reid '25 Jonathan Seawards '26	Joshua Pelletier '24 Lekha Sapers '24 Avalon Everett '27 Michael Fineman '25
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Erik Anderson '26 Everett Mcavoy '26 Martha Schuessler '27	Amanda Turner '27 Stella Taherian '27 Sophia Shaeffer '25 Peyton Lieser '26 Kees Horn '25
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Clay Myers '25 Nicholas Mueller '27 Ryan Downey '25	Etienne Quille '25 Mateo Krok '27 Charles Bedford '24
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	Carter Anderson '27 Colin Olson '26 George Soliman '24	Hunter Holguin '25 Devon Baker-Berry '26 Vienna Lopez '27
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Katherine Olsen '25 Victoria Chen '25 Will Cornell '25	Zoe Flemate '25 Fiona Wu '25 Emerson Marquez '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Max Case '24 Robert Bloomfield '26 Samuel Groom '24	Mira Shupe '26 Griffin Vernon '26 Claire Wiley '27

Conditions — 04/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From SSE (157°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1012.6 hPa Rain0.24 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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