Mustang Team Race

HostCal Poly
Date03/07/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	9–1
2	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs 2	6–4
3	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs 1	6–4
4	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	5–5
5	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	3–7
6	University of Southern California	Trojans	1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.550 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.41 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	1	6.50 school −0.15, home +0.36	Noah Shefer / Andrew Dolle 2.48 Marina Priskich / Lola Audan 1.77 5–1 Morgan Headington / Mila Kane 2.62 5–1 Robert Bloomfield / Brynn Jolly 0.94 4–0	87%	7–1 (88%)	+0.0
2	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	3	3.41 school −0.20	Caden Domingo / Dakota Rutherford 3–3 Devon Baker-Berry / Eleanor Massey 1.58 3–3 Maggie Mceachen / Sophia Preston 3–3 Anjali Venugopalan / Dakota Rutherford 2–1 Guthrie Goss / Eleanor Massey 2–1 Sophia Preston / Maggie Mceachen 2–1	51%	5–4 (56%)	+0.4
3	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	4	3.65 school −0.20	Colin Olson / Vienna Lopez 1.90 3–3 Conor Kim / Jessie Swain 3–3 Joaquin Desrochers / Emilia Mcnabb 1.86 3–3 Vienna Lopez / Colin Olson 1–2 Jessie Swain / Conor Kim 1–2 Emilia Mcnabb / Joaquin Desrochers 1–2	42%	4–5 (44%)	+0.2
4	University of California at Berkeley Bears	2	5.56 school +0.21	Wilton Lawton / Bianca Weber 1.86 Nathaniel Grinkrug / Gabriel Rousseau 1.32 Carsten Zieger / Annika Baumgartner 2.12	64%	4–4 (50%)	−1.1
6	University of Southern California Trojans	5	2.38 school +0.07	Maximilian Conze / Julia Szymanski 1.72 0–6 Anastasia Reille / Sylvia Rosenfeld 0–6 Colin Cann / Rachel Rambo 1–5 Colin Cann / Marina Yazbek Dias Peres 0–2 Maximilian Conze / Marina Yazbek Dias Peres 1.63 1–1 Anastasia Reille / Julia Szymanski 1–1	8%	1–7 (12%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	University of Southern California Trojans	2.38	2.97	1–7	0.6	+0.59	0.2	47%
2	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	3.41	3.81	5–4	4.6	+0.41	0.1	54%
3	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	3.65	3.81	4–5	3.8	+0.16	0.0	57%
1	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	6.50	6.52	7–1	7.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
4	University of California at Berkeley Bears	5.56	4.64	4–4	5.1	−0.92	0.7	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Robert Bloomfield	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	0.94	3.94	4–0	3.4	≥+3.00	0.9	52%
Caden Domingo	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.34	2.51	3–3	2.1	+1.17	0.7	30%
Devon Baker-Berry	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.58	2.75	3–3	2.1	+1.17	0.7	30%
Maggie Mceachen	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.20	2.37	3–3	2.1	+1.17	0.7	30%
Vienna Lopez	University of California at Santa Cruz	0.09	0.80	1–2	0.6	+0.71	0.2	48%
Jessie Swain	University of California at Santa Cruz	0.26	0.97	1–2	0.6	+0.71	0.2	48%
Emilia Mcnabb	University of California at Santa Cruz	0.47	1.17	1–2	0.6	+0.71	0.2	48%
Maximilian Conze	University of Southern California	1.72	2.31	1–7	0.6	+0.59	0.2	47%
Anastasia Reille	University of Southern California	-0.03	0.56	1–7	0.6	+0.59	0.2	47%
Colin Cann	University of Southern California	0.41	1.00	1–7	0.6	+0.59	0.2	47%
Noah Shefer	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.48	2.50	7–1	7.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
Morgan Headington	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.62	2.51	5–1	5.1	−0.10	0.0	77%
Colin Olson	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.90	1.72	3–3	3.2	−0.18	0.0	75%
Conor Kim	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.51	1.33	3–3	3.2	−0.18	0.0	75%
Joaquin Desrochers	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.86	1.68	3–3	3.2	−0.18	0.0	75%
Anjali Venugopalan	University of California at Santa Cruz	0.20	-0.51	2–1	2.4	−0.71	0.2	90%
Guthrie Goss	University of California at Santa Cruz	0.29	-0.42	2–1	2.4	−0.71	0.2	90%
Sophia Preston	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.64	0.93	2–1	2.4	−0.71	0.2	90%
Marina Priskich	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.77	0.99	5–1	5.5	−0.79	0.3	92%
Wilton Lawton	University of California at Berkeley	1.86	0.94	4–4	5.1	−0.92	0.7	93%
Nathaniel Grinkrug	University of California at Berkeley	1.32	0.40	4–4	5.1	−0.92	0.7	93%
Carsten Zieger	University of California at Berkeley	2.12	1.21	4–4	5.1	−0.92	0.7	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	96%
1	3	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of Southern California Trojans	97%
1	5	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	University of Southern California Trojans	94%
1	6	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	82%
1	7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of Southern California Trojans	96%
1	9	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	61%
1	10	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	University of Southern California Trojans	85%
1	11	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	76%
1	13	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	21%	upset
1	15	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of California at Berkeley Bears	83%
2	17	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	5%	upset
2	18	University of California at Berkeley Bears	University of Southern California Trojans	96%
2	20	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	University of Southern California Trojans	94%
2	21	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	University of California at Berkeley Bears	20%	upset
2	22	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of Southern California Trojans	95%
2	24	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	University of California at Berkeley Bears	40%	upset
2	25	University of Southern California Trojans	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	16%	upset
2	26	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	75%
2	28	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	81%
2	30	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	University of California at Berkeley Bears	83%
3	31	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	81%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Mustangs	2	1	Bears	Bruins	Trojans
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	5–5	L	✕	✕	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	5–5	L	✕	✕	L	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	3–2	L	W	W	✕	L	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Southern California Trojans	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Mustangs	2	1	Bears	Bruins	Trojans
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	4–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	7–3	L	✕	✕	W	W	L
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	7–3	L	✕	✕	W	W	L
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Southern California Trojans	1–4	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	2	1
	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	1–1	✕	✕
	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	1–1	✕	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Banana Slugs 1	2-3-5	def.	Bruins	1-4-6
2	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs 2	3-4-5
3	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Trojans	2-5-6
4	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
5	Banana Slugs 1	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
6	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs 2	4-5-6
7	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
8	Banana Slugs 2	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs 1	3-4-5
10	Banana Slugs 2	1-4-5	def.	Trojans	2-3-6
11	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs 1	3-4-5
12	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
13	Banana Slugs 1	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs 2	3-4-5
14	Bruins	1-3-4	def.	Trojans	2-5-6
15	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
16	Banana Slugs 1	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
17	Banana Slugs 2	1-3-4	def.	Mustangs	2-5-6
18	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Trojans	2-5-6
19	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
20	Banana Slugs 1	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
21	Banana Slugs 2	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
22	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
23	Banana Slugs 2	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
24	Banana Slugs 1	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
25	Trojans	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs 2	1-5-6
26	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs 1	4-5-6
27	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
28	Banana Slugs 2	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs 1	1-5-6
29	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
30	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
31	Banana Slugs 2	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs 1	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Marina Priskich '29 Morgan Headington '28 Noah Shefer '29 Robert Bloomfield '26	Lola Audan '29 Mila Kane '29 Andrew Dolle '29 Brynn Jolly '29
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs 2	Anjali Venugopalan '29 Caden Domingo '27 Devon Baker-Berry '26 Guthrie Goss '26 Maggie Mceachen '27 Sophia Preston '27	Dakota Rutherford '27 Eleanor Massey '28 Sophia Preston '27 Maggie Mceachen '27
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs 1	Colin Olson '26 Conor Kim '27 Emilia Mcnabb '28 Jessie Swain '29 Joaquin Desrochers '29 Vienna Lopez '27	Vienna Lopez '27 Jessie Swain '29 Joaquin Desrochers '29 Conor Kim '27 Emilia Mcnabb '28 Colin Olson '26
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Carsten Zieger '28 Nathaniel Grinkrug '27 Wilton Lawton '26	Annika Baumgartner '28 Gabriel Rousseau '27 Bianca Weber '26
University of Southern California	Trojans	Anastasia Reille '28 Colin Cann '29 Maximilian Conze '28	Julia Szymanski '28 Sylvia Rosenfeld '28 Rachel Rambo '29 Marina Yazbek Dias Peres '29

Conditions — 03/07/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 67°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.2 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 15.2 kn

From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Cal Poly — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cal Poly in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Poly by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Cal Poly, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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