Cal Poly University S.L.O. '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.12) | 159 of 331 | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–19 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 21–19 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 21–19 against 16.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.53 | 4.61 | 8–6 | 3.5 | +2.09 | 6.9 | <1% |
| 2026-03-07 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 2.45 | 7–1 | 7.0 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.21 | 2.07 | 6–12 | 6.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.1 | 4.23 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.7 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate 2026 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 3.62 |
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.5 | 5.21 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Jeff Simon Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.1 | 3.33 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Anteater JV | Crew | B | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| West Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.4 | 2.33 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 3.56 |
| 2026 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 2.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
