University of California at Santa Cruz '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.72 (fleet 2.43) | 248 of 331 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–26 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 4–22 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 7–26 against 8.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.00 | -1.00 | 0–8 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 1.44 | 4–14 | 5.0 | −0.55 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2025-02-01 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 1.34 | 1.61 | 3–4 | 2.7 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.0 | 1.03 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.46 |
| Kiara Broudy Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate 2026 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 2.18 |
| PCCSC Silver Champs | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.6 | 3.07 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Jeff Simon Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 2.38 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Cactus Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 2.34 |
| Anteater JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 2.37 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 2.87 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 1.69 |
| Kiara Broudy Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 2.99 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 2.25 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 1.93 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 2.73 |
| Cactus Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 0.78 |
| Anteater Open JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 2.86 |
| Kiara Broudy Memorial | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.0 | 1.74 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
